Published Dec 2, 10:40pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 2, 10:40pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 2, 10:40pm ET
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|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1 (+103) |
| Indianapolis Colts | -1 (-123) |
After the Colts' stunningly hot start with reclamation project QB Daniel Jones leading the way, they became a trendy Super Bowl pick. That has subsided in the past four weeks with losses to the Steelers, Chiefs, and Texans, plus barely squeaking by the Falcons in overtime.
Still, they're 8-4 and in a good position to make the playoffs even if they don't win the division. Jacksonville has caught them in the division, and Houston is right behind both and playing excellent football after a terrible start.
In Week 13, Houston traveled to Indianapolis and beat the Colts 20-16. The Colts were doomed by a missed Michael Badgley extra point attempt in the second quarter. The Colts cut Badgley on Tuesday.
#Colts have waived kicker Michael Badgley after he missed his third extra point in seven games in yesterday's loss to the Texans.
— Angela Moryan (@AngelaMoryanTV) December 2, 2025
The Colts will now look for their THIRD kicker of the season ahead of playing in Jacksonville Sunday.
MORE: https://t.co/UnUMOfViuO pic.twitter.com/3pYauhG37I
They signed Blake Grupe to replace him.
Jones played with a fractured fibula and completed 14 of 27 passes for 201 yards and 2 TDs. But he didn't run. That takes away a fundamental part of his game and makes him a pure pocket passer.
Jacksonville is first in the league in defensive rushing yards per game, so Jones will need to pass to win. Indy will be without cornerback Sauce Gardner, out with a calf injury.
After Jacksonville, the Colts play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars again, and Texans. If they lose this game, winning the division will be difficult.
ALSO SEE: Commanders vs Vikings Week 14 Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 7)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Sauce Gardner, CB | INJURED |
The Jaguars' 8-4 record has not been based on a weak schedule. Sure, they have victories over the Raiders, Cardinals, and Titans, but they've also beaten the Chiefs, 49ers, and Chargers. Even their win over the Panthers is looking more impressive as Carolina rises to playoff contention in their own right.
The teams are in a dead heat at the moment. With the Texans right on their heels, the schedule will come into play, and the Jags' schedule is the easiest, on paper.
In their Week 13 win over the woeful Titans, QB Trevor Lawrence completed 16 of 27 passes for 2 TDs. Jakobi Meyers caught 6 balls for 90 yards and a TD.
Trevor Lawrence passer rating before and after the arrival of Jakobi Meyers:
— SleeperJaguars (@SleeperJaguars) December 2, 2025
Before: 80.6
After: 85.8
That number jumps to 88.7 if you exclude Meyers' first game in Houston pic.twitter.com/0F4tHY89ZL
Josh Hines-Allen sacked Cam Ward twice.
On paper, these teams are very evenly matched. Both are good against the run and vulnerable to the pass. With Gardner out, expect Lawrence to open it up and push the ball downfield. He's prone to throwing interceptions, so the game could come down to turnovers.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Travon Walker, DE | INJURED |
| Patrick Mekari, G | INJURED |
| Chuma Edoga, G | INJURED |
| Arik Armstead, DT | INJURED |
| Walker Little, OT | INJURED |
| Parker Washington, WR | INJURED |
For Week 14 Colts-Jaguars, barring a tie, one team will walk off the field in sole possession of first place in the AFC South. Indianapolis desperately needs this victory to restore its confidence after a rough stretch amid injuries and bad luck. Jacksonville will have taken a major step forward after a 4-13 season in 2024.
If the Jags win, they have a relatively clear path to the division title. It's conceivable that the Colts will end up in third place in the division.
This will be a tight battle with road favorite Indianapolis taking the win and with it, first place.
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Pick
Indianapolis Colts -1
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