Published Nov 20, 11:59am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Nov 20, 11:59am ET
Grok AI
Updated Nov 20, 12:01pm ET
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| Kansas City Chiefs | -3.5 (+105) |
| Indianapolis Colts | +3.5 (-125) |
At 8-2, the Colts' playoff spot is secure, and their lead in the AFC South is reasonably safe. However, they are embarking on a very rough stretch for their final seven games, starting with a trip to KC.
They follow that up with games against the Texans, Jaguars, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars again, and Texans again. Their results will be an indicator of what to expect from them in the playoffs.
In Week 10, they won a seesaw affair with the Falcons in Berlin, 31-25 in overtime when the superlative Jonathan Taylor scored on an 8-yard run.
GREATEST INTERNATIONAL PERFORMANCE IN NFL HISTORY?
— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
32 CARRIES
224 YARDS
3 TDs including the OT game-winner
JONATHAN. TAYLOR. pic.twitter.com/4BLLIXbX6I
QB Daniel Jones completed 19 of 26 passes for 255 yards, 1 TD, and 1 pick. He ran for 53 yards on 7 carries.
The Colts lead the NFL in points per game, are 3rd in both rushing yards per game and passing yards per game. They are vulnerable to the pass, ranked 25th in defensive passing yards per game, but acquired Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline. Still, expect Patrick Mahomes to try and put on an air show.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Tyquan Lewis, DE | INJURED |
| Samson Ebukam, DE | INJURED |
| Charvarius Ward, CB | INJURED |
| Jaylon Carlies, LB | INJURED |
| DeForest Buckner, DT | INJURED |
| Anthony Richardson, QB | INJURED |
The Chiefs have lost two straight to AFC contenders Buffalo and Denver, have a 5-5 record, are in 3rd place in the AFC West, and are on the outside looking in at the playoffs. What's missed amid the .500 record is that they are playing similarly to the way they did in the first 10 games last season. The difference is that they were 9-1 on the way to a 15-2 season and a Super Bowl berth.
However, the Eagles' blowout in Super Bowl LIX might have been a better window into KC's future than their run to the big game.
Their Week 11 loss to the Broncos, with Denver hitting two field goals in the last 4:10 to win 22-19, could have been the backbreaker for KC and the catapult for Denver.
How much does Sean Payton trust Will Lutz?
— RK (@RyanKoenigsberg) November 17, 2025
He was celebrating before the game-winning kick even happened.
Wouldn’t even be surprised if this was towards Will. pic.twitter.com/RpZZsfK7Kt
Mahomes was good, completing 29 of 45 passes for 276 yards, 1 TD, and 1 pick. Travis Kelce caught 9 balls for 91 yards. They could have won. The same could be said for all five of their losses this season.
This is the hallmark of a fading dynasty. They're old. Players like Chris Jones look indifferent. Their rushing attack is largely ineffective.
Still, they have a chance to salvage the season, starting with the Colts. They're the Chiefs, so it's unwise to fully count them out. But it might be time to do just that.
They come into the game reasonably healthy. Running back Isiah Pacheco has been out with a sprained MCL, but is expected to play.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy, WR | INJURED |
| Kingsley Suamataia, OT | INJURED |
Week 12 Colts-Chiefs is a crucial game for both. KC needs to win to try and get back into playoff position where they can find a second life and perhaps make another run based on experience and reputation. Indy has a tough schedule ahead and is not yet being taken seriously as a threat to the upper echelon teams in the conference.
Indy will put up the points against KC. Mahomes will need to fire downfield to keep up. Expect a high-scoring but close matchup where the underdog Colts keep it within 3.5 points.
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Pick
Indianapolis Colts +3.5
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