Published Nov 21, 12:46pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Nov 21, 12:46pm ET
Grok AI
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| Los Angeles Rams | -6.5 (-123) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6.5 (+103) |
The Bucs' last two games were losses to the Patriots (28-23) and to the Bills (44-32). Their pass defense has been porous, ranked 27th in the league in yards allowed per game.
Still, they can put up the points under Baker Mayfield. Their struggles are largely injury-related. Top receiver Mike Evans is out with a broken collarbone; running back Bucky Irving has not played since late September with shoulder and foot woes.
Buffalo held Mayfield to 173 yards passing. He's having an excellent season with 17 TD passes against 3 picks and a 97.0 passer rating. The early-season MVP talk has quieted in part due to Tampa's stumble and other players like his Week 11 and Week 12 counterparts, Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford, dominating the conversation.
Mayfield played briefly for the Rams in 2022 and credits his time under Sean McVay and with an injured Stafford helping him and sparking his career renaissance.
This @BakerMayfield comeback was WILD after just 48 hours with the Rams.
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) November 21, 2025
He returns to LA on Sunday 👀 pic.twitter.com/aKMsj3DUru
Even if they lose to the Rams, Tampa has a favorable schedule with games against the Cardinals, Saints, and Falcons in advance of a potential divisional showdown with the Panthers.
The Bucs are +9 in takeaway differential. Teams have been able to focus on stopping Mayfield with Irving out. It certainly doesn't help that he's without Evans.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Bucky Irving, RB | INJURED |
| Mike Evans, WR | INJURED |
| Ben Bredeson, G | INJURED |
| Tristan Wirfs, OT | INJURED |
| Chris Braswell, LB | INJURED |
| Hassan Reddick, LB | INJURED |
| Jamel Dean, CB | INJURED |
| Emeka Egbuka, WR | INJURED |
The Rams have won five straight to raise their record to 8-2. The last two wins were key victories over NFC West contenders, the 49ers and Seahawks. LA is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
While LA is known for its offense under McVay and Stafford, their defense picked off Seahawks' QB Sam Darnold four times. Still, the game was in doubt until the waning seconds, when a desperation 61-yard field goal attempt by Jason Myers was short and wide.
Jason Myers from 61 yards is nooooooo good
— PlayNow Sports (@PlayNowSports) November 17, 2025
Seahawks can’t complete the comeback against the Rams
19+
pic.twitter.com/1hCzLKh793
The game was a tough slog. Stafford completed 15 of 28 passes for 130 yards and 2 TDs. Kyren Williams ran for 91 yards on 12 carries.
LA is in the driver's seat for the division. They are +10 in takeaway differential, are 2nd in fewest points allowed per game, and 6th in points scored per game.
Against Tampa, they can mimic the strategies that slowed the Bucs' offense by forcing Mayfield to throw the ball downfield. Tampa cannot win a shootout with LA, and if they can't control the clock with their rushing attack, the Bucs are going to lose.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Xavier Smith, WR | INJURED |
| Nate Landman, LB | INJURED |
| Rob Havenstein, OT | INJURED |
| Quentin Lake, S | INJURED |
| Tyler Higbee, TE | INJURED |
In Week 12 Buccaneers-Rams, Tampa is trying to break its 2-game losing streak; LA does not want to waste its two big wins over divisional rivals by getting upset at home to an injury-ravaged Bucs roster.
The game is more important to Tampa, but it is not make-or-break. It will be difficult for the Bucs to win this game on the road, given how banged up they are. Still, Mayfield will keep the score within 6.5 points, and the underdogs will cover the spread.
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Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5
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