Published Dec 16, 12:32pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 16, 12:32pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 16, 12:32pm ET
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|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | +3 (-110) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3 (-110) |
After eight games, the Buccaneers looked like a legitimate sleeper pick to emerge from the NFC. QB Baker Mayfield was a trendy MVP contender. They'd beaten the Seahawks and 49ers, two playoff teams.
Since then, they've come apart. In fairness, injuries to stars, including Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, and Tristan Wirfs, have been a factor. But they have not played well, even against bad teams, particularly in the past two weeks, losing to the Saints and Falcons.
In the midst of all this, they did the near-impossible, managing to get even-keeled, sometimes notoriously so, head coach Todd Bowles to lose his temper.
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles showed what many leaders feel, but rarely say out loud.
— Julius Thomas (@Julius_Thomas) December 16, 2025
When was the last time you felt like losing it as a leader? 🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/1b2Ae7SXdh
Despite all that, the Bucs' destiny is in their hands. Two of their final three games are against the Panthers. Those games sandwich a matchup with the Dolphins, who are out of playoff contention. It's right there in front of them...if they win.
Evans returned against the Falcons after missing nearly two months with a broken collarbone. He caught 6 passes for 132 yards.
Mayfield has thrown 5 interceptions in the past 5 games. Given how poorly the defense has played and how vulnerable it is to the pass (ranked 30th in defensive passing yards per game), they cannot turn the ball over. They have been solid against the run, ranked 10th. They will need to stop Carolina's dual-pronged rushing attack of Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard to win.
ALSO SEE: Jets vs Saints | Week 16 Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 21)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Tykee Smith, S | INJURED |
| Cade Otton, TE | INJURED |
| SirVocea Dennis, LB | INJURED |
| Zyon McCollum, CB | INJURED |
It could be argued that the Panthers at 7-7 are playing with house money after going 5-12 in 2024, with rampant criticism of owner David Tepper and his petulant ways, QB Bryce Young and how overmatched he seemed, and a franchise that was known more for its ineptitude over the better part of a decade.
Now, like the Bucs, the Panthers' destiny is what they make of it. Like most young teams that are making the innocent climb, there will be hiccups. For Carolina, they showed how polarizing a team on the precipice of the playoffs can be by upsetting the NFL frontrunning Rams in Week 13, then emerging from their bye week by losing to the Saints in Week 15.
Against New Orleans, Young played well enough, completing 15 of 24 passes for 163 yards and a TD. He ran for 49 yards on 7 attempts. But the Saints shut down Dowdle and Hubbard, holding them to a combined 78 yards on 24 carries.
Carolina had built a 17-7 lead with just under 10 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter. But New Orleans scored 13 unanswered points, and Charlie Smyth kicked a 47-yard field goal as time expired.
🇮🇪 Mayobridge man Charlie Smyth with a 42 yard FG on his Saints home debut!
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) December 14, 2025
Love to see it! 🤩 pic.twitter.com/Gc4UwoFtFl
The Panthers' road is slightly more difficult than the Bucs'. They need to play the Seahawks between the two games against Tampa. Seattle is still fighting for the NFC West and home field advantage throughout the NFC bracket. They'll need to win.
Carolina must not turn the ball over if they intend to win this game. And they absolutely must run the ball.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Tershawn Wharton, DT | INJURED |
| David Moore, WR | INJURED |
Week 16 Buccaneers-Panthers is tantamount to a playoff game, with another pseudo-playoff game likely in two weeks. Regardless of how this game goes, the NFC South will not be settled as time runs out.
However, this game is critical for both teams. The Bucs need to stop the bleeding; the Panthers need to show they should be in this position.
Tampa will focus on stopping Carolina's rushing attack and forcing Young to beat them downfield. Carolina will try to minimize mistakes and corral Mayfield and his penchant for sandlot plays.
In the end, home underdog Carolina will keep the score within a field goal.
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Pick
Carolina Panthers +3
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