Published Dec 26, 8:17pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 26, 8:17pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 26, 8:17pm ET
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| Miami Dolphins | +5.5 (-110) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -5.5 (-110) |
After a 6-2 start and MVP talk for QB Baker Mayfield, injuries and regression led to 6 losses in 7 games. They have fallen out of 1st place, now behind the upstart Panthers, having lost to Carolina in Week 16.
Still, Tampa Bay's destiny is in its hands. If they beat the Dolphins in Week 17 and beat the Panthers in their rematch in Week 18, they win the NFC South based on a better record against common teams.
Even if they lose to the Dolphins, a Panthers' loss to the Seahawks would make Week 18's Bucs-Panthers matchup tantamount to a playoff game for the NFC South title.
Given how poorly they have played during this awful stretch, they need a dramatic turnaround to make the payoffs. If healthy, though, they are a dangerous team. And they're slowly getting their key players back.
Star offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs is out with a toe injury.
Their 23-20 loss in Carolina mimicked many of their losses during this bad stretch. They came close to winning, but fell short at the end. The previous two weeks had losses to the Falcons by 1 point and to the Saints by 4 points.
The Panthers shut down Mayfield. Though the QB was 18 for 26, he only managed 145 yards and 1 TD. He accrued 49 yards on 4 carries. Mayfield was trying to engineer a last-minute drive, but was picked off by Lathan Ransom to end it.
Baker Mayfield miscommunication with Evans.
— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) December 21, 2025
Mike Evans might have ran the wrong route on this interception, ball game. Panthers win 🤯 pic.twitter.com/BIyqNymF6b
Tampa could not get its running game going to a significant degree either. Bucky Irving ran for 71 yards on 19 carries. Rachaad White had 45 yards on 5 carries.
Irving and White should be able to gobble up yards on the ground against Miami's defense, ranked 26th in defensive yards per game against the rush. Head coach Todd Bowles' defense should be salivating at the chance to get at the rookie QB Quinn Ewers, though they would likely be better off with Tua Tagovailoa playing, since he's been so horrible.
ALSO SEE: Jaguars vs Colts | Week 17 Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 28)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Tristan Wirfs, OT | INJURED |
| Calijah Kancey, DT | INJURED |
| Anthony Nelson, LB | INJURED |
The Dolphins' chance for a miracle run to the playoffs ended in Pittsburgh with their 28-15 loss to the Steelers in Week 15. They followed that up by getting blown out by the equally disappointing Bengals, 45-21.
Now, the die is cast for head coach Mike McDaniel. After a brief and fleeting hope that maybe he could save his job, Miami reverted to the inconsistent entity they have been under his watch, never showing the requisite toughness, particularly in the cold, to make it beyond that level.
Against Cincinnati, Ewers was 20 for 30 and 260 yards. He was picked off twice. The rookie Ewers was a 7th-round draft pick out of Texas. Based on that, it's difficult to see whoever takes over as Miami's head of football ops moving forward with him as the starter.
Quinn Ewers welcome to the NFL. Tosses it up, this one is his fault pic.twitter.com/wR6N0afoUp
— NFL Interceptions (@interceptnfl) December 21, 2025
The game was competitive for the first half, with the Bengals entering the break leading 17-14. But they blew the game open in the 3rd quarter.
The question for the Dolphins is how much they're going to play the key players like DeVon Achane in the final two games of the season. Playing starters on a limited basis, if they play at all, will have a direct impact on their remaining games.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Aaron Brewer, C | INJURED |
| Jason Sanders, PK | INJURED |
| Benito Jones, DT | INJURED |
| Tyrel Dodson, LB | INJURED |
| Dee Eskridge, WR | INJURED |
| Isaiah Johnson, CB | INJURED |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick, S | INJURED |
| James Daniels, G | INJURED |
In Week 17 Buccaneers-Dolphins, the script will likely go the way games in which it truly matters to one team and matters not at all to the other team tend to go. Tampa does not have to win this game for Week 18 to be the dealbreaker for their playoff hopes. If the Panthers lose to the Seahawks, Game 18 will be for the NFC South title no matter what.
Still, Tampa does not want to leave its future in the Seahawks' hands for no other reason than they need to break their losing streak and go into Week 18 on a positive note.
Miami is starting the rookie Ewers and Tampa will be desperate to put up a good showing. It's a question as to how hard the Dolphins are going to play.
The road favorite Bucs will win the game outright and cover the spread.
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Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5
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