Published Oct 22, 10:39am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Oct 22, 10:39am ET
Grok AI
Updated Oct 22, 10:39am ET
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| New England Patriots | -7 (-110) |
| Cleveland Browns | +7 (-110) |
Before Week 7 against the Dolphins, the Browns had not scored more than 17 points in any game this season. They put up 31 against Miami, but one was on a Tyson Campbell pick-6. Miami turned the ball over four times.
PICK-6 on the first play of the half. 🤯
— Tyler S (@Tyler_SS11) October 19, 2025
The Cleveland Browns pick off Tua and the Miami Dolphins to start the second half. 🔥#PhinsUp #NFL #DawgPound pic.twitter.com/82toJl4KXQ
Browns' QB Dillon Gabriel managed the game against a terrible team, completing 13 of 18 passes for 116 yards. He did what he needed to do to win by relying on his defense and not making mistakes.
It was a low bar against an awful team that is in complete disarray, from the head coach to the QB, and throughout the entire organization.
Still, a win is a win, and the Browns' defense against Miami was not an anomaly. Apart from the 31-point loss to the Ravens and the 24-point loss to the Lions, Cleveland's three other losses were by a total of 19 points. Their record could easily be reversed with some semblance of an offense. They would be in first place in the AFC North.
Cleveland is 3rd in the league in defensive passing yards per game and 4th in the league in defensive rushing yards per game. New England has struggled to establish its ground game. Primary running back Rhamondre Stevenson has had a fumbling issue.
The Pats will rely on Drake Maye's arm and legs. That's their strength. If Cleveland can hold Maye in check, they have a chance to win a close game. Do not expect them to repeat their 31-point performance from Week 7.
The Browns' 2025 defensive performance is going to get defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz another opportunity as a head coach, somewhere.
With head coach Mike Vrabel, quarterback Drake Maye, and a 4-game winning streak elevating them to 1st place in the AFC East, the Patriots are suddenly a hot story. Their chaotic downfall under Bill Belichick and ineptitude under Jerod Mayo are being blotted out in 2025.
Barring a collapse, they are heading back to the playoffs.
Against Tennessee in Week 7, Maye was nearly perfect, completing 21 of 23 passes for 2 TDs. He ran for 62 yards on 8 carries.
DRAKE MAYE HAS THE PRETTIEST BALLS IN THE #NFL RIGHT NOW.
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) October 19, 2025
🔥🔥🔥
Literal perfection.
pic.twitter.com/roFPKlaVbu
He spread the ball around to six different receivers with Stefon Diggs leading the way, catching 7 balls for 69 yards. On defense, they sacked Cam Ward four times, with K'Lavon Chaisson notching two.
New England is probably not ready to threaten the top teams in the conference, but they are in the conversation as a team that is not simply going to make the playoffs, but could surprise in the playoffs.
However, they need to establish the running game and avoid turning the ball over. Mistakes will be their downfall, and with young teams, mistakes are largely unavoidable.
Although Cleveland is 2-5, this is a big test for Maye. If Quinshon Judkins can gobble up yards on the ground against New England's tough run defense, the Browns could win this game.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| David Njoku, CLE | INJURED |
| Mike Hall, CLE | INJURED |
| Jack Conklin, CLE | INJURED |
| Adin Huntington, CLE | INJURED |
| Charles Woods, NE | INJURED |
| Jaylinn Hawkins, NE | INJURED |
In the Browns-Patriots NFL Week 8 confrontation, New England is relatively heavily favored to improve to 6-2 and maintain its hold on first place in the AFC East. But this is a classic trap game where they are expected to win, expect to win, but are playing a team with a tough defense that can smother them.
If it is a close game late, there is always the chance for a team as young as the Pats to panic. Of course, Vrabel played for Belichick and is an experienced player and coach who will recognize the signs of teams getting too impressed with themselves and not knowing how to win a surprisingly tough game late. He will take steps to mitigate it.
Expect the Pats to win, but the final score will be within 7 points.
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Pick
Cleveland Browns +7
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