Published Dec 23, 8:21pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 23, 8:21pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 23, 8:21pm ET
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|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +13 (-101) |
| Denver Broncos | -13 (-119) |
Although the Jaguars broke the Broncos' 11-game winning streak in Week 16, Denver is still in the pole position for the #1 seed in the AFC playoff bracket.
It's simple.
If they beat the Chiefs in KC on Christmas Night and the Chargers in LA in Week 18, they will be the top seed.
After tying Jacksonville with just over 13 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the Jags took control, outscoring Denver 17-3 until just under 11 minutes remained in the game to make the score 34-20. That's how it ended.
Denver's outstanding defense did not have an answer for Jags' QB Trevor Lawrence, who completed 23 of 36 passes for 279 yards and 3 TDs. He badly outplayed Bo Nix.
"The league's not going to be that easy, I mean 11 wins straight that's a pretty impressive feat, but I think this was a wake up call"
— DNVR Broncos (@DNVR_Broncos) December 22, 2025
Pat Surtain after the Broncos loss vs the Jaguars 👀 pic.twitter.com/NU288REpDx
Looking at past statistics in this matchup is a waste of time. These are not the Chiefs of Super Bowl vintage. They're not even the Chiefs the Broncos beat six weeks ago.
Denver desperately needs this game. They will be facing an inexperienced QB in Chris Oladokun. And they know that the Chiefs are just trying to get the season over with.
ALSO SEE: Cowboys vs Commanders | Christmas Day Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 25)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Pat Bryant, WR | INJURED |
| Nate Adkins, TE | INJURED |
| Dre Greenlaw, LB | INJURED |
| Luke Wattenberg, C | INJURED |
Star QB Patrick Mahomes is lost for the season after blowing out his left knee. He has already started rehabbing after surgery. The team is hoping he can be ready to go at the start of the 2026 season.
Rick Burkholder said Patrick Mahomes had surgery Monday and everything in the injury was fixable. Mahomes started rehab the very next day — Tuesday.
— Taylor Burr (@TaylorBurr10) December 17, 2025
Built different. #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/lET77a1vpW
Mahomes' backup, Gardner Minshew, suffered a knee injury that was initially believed to have been a torn ACL. Fortunately, he avoided that fate. But he's on injured reserve.
Even before the injuries, the Chiefs were seeing how the other half of the league lived with close losses, mistakes, indifference, and distractions.
Now, they're starting Chris Oladokun, 28, who saw his first NFL action in Week 16's loss to the woeful Titans. He completed 11 of 16 passes for 111 yards. After attending three colleges: South Florida, Samford, and South Dakota St., he was drafted by the Steelers in the 7th round of the 2022 NFL Draft. They released him in training camp and he signed with the Chiefs. He's been with the organization since then, so he knows the system.
.@1Chrisoladokun0 🇳🇬, a 2022 7th Round selection (Pittsburgh) saw his first NFL action with limited snaps for the @Chiefs in the final regular season game of 2024.
— NFL Africa (@NFLAfrica) December 22, 2025
Following Patrick Mahomes' Week 15 injury, Oladokun was signed to the active roster from the practice squad to back… pic.twitter.com/goqF7wnAg8
The remainder of the season will be about Travis Kelce and if he's going to retire, which players will be discarded after the season, how they reverse course from the 2025 failures, and if they need a few tweaks or a dramatic overhaul.
This could be Kelce's final game in Kansas City.
It's generally assumed that head coach Andy Reid, 68 in March, will return.
On another note, the team's new stadium will be in Kansas, not Missouri. They are expected to begin play there in 2031. There has been a visceral reaction to this as if the Chiefs are relocating far away from their home, but the new stadium is around 60 miles away from the old one. It just happens to be in another state.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes, QB | INJURED |
| Gardner Minshew, QB | INJURED |
| Tyquan Thornton, WR | INJURED |
| Nikko Remigio, WR | INJURED |
| Rashee Rice, WR | INJURED |
| Derrick Nnadi, DT | INJURED |
| Trent McDuffie, CB | INJURED |
| Jaylen Watson, CB | INJURED |
| Jawaan Taylor, OT | INJURED |
| Leo Chenal, LB | INJURED |
For Christmas Night Broncos-Chiefs, this is not the situation that was expected when the schedule came out before the season. At the time, the Chiefs were expected to be getting ready for another playoff run. In a best-case scenario, the Broncos would be in the playoff mix and hoping to take the next step from their Wild Card playoff loss in 2024.
Obviously, the Chiefs would like to slow down the Broncos and stop their march to the top seed. But they just do not have the personnel to do it.
It's a very heavy point spread of nearly 2 TDs, but Denver's defense will corral the young QB Oladokun and blow the game open relatively early.
As the game winds down, the focus will be on Kelce as his body language and reaction to the fans will be an indicator of his plans.
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Pick
Denver Broncos -13
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