Published Nov 17, 12:53pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Nov 17, 12:53pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Nov 17, 12:53pm ET
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| Houston Texans | +4.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -4.5 (-110) |
Given the weakness of the AFC East over the past six seasons, it's understandable if the Bills expected another borderline automatic division title. However, the Patriots have other ideas, and even with the Bills' win on Sunday, New England maintains a 1.5-game divisional advantage.
Still, the Bills notched an impressive and critical victory over the Bucs in a back-and-forth affair before Buffalo pulled away with two late TDs.
Josh Allen was 19 for 30 and 317 yards with 2 TD passes and 3 rushing TDs. He also threw 2 picks. The Bills were without tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) and receiver Keon Coleman (disciplinary inactive). Unheralded second-year receiver Tyrell Shavers caught 4 balls for 90 yards.
Josh Allen 🎯 Tyrell Shavers
— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) November 16, 2025
This 43-yard TD pass traveled an air distance of 56.1 yards, per @NextGenStats
📲 Stream with NFL+pic.twitter.com/A482zNlf3T
The Bills' defense continues to be a sieve. They can barely stop anyone on the ground, ranked 31st in the NFL against the rush, and are relying on Allen winning shootouts week after week.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Mecole Hardman, WR | INJURED |
| Dalton Kincaid, TE | INJURED |
After an 0-3 start, the Texans have won five of their last seven games to reach .500. They have beaten and lost to solid teams during that run. Their schedule is still difficult, but they have gotten into the playoff conversation despite the AFC South likely being out of reach.
In Week 11 against the Titans and without C.J. Stroud, still dealing with a concussion, Houston battled through and walked away with a 16-13 win. Backup Davis Mills completed 26 of 41 passes for 274 yards and 1 TD. Nico Collins caught 9 balls for 92 yards and a TD.
Nico Collins puts the Texans on the board!
— NFL (@NFL) November 16, 2025
HOUvsTEN on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/QiNoWnQ0rl
Houston doesn't have much of a running game and with their schedule and the deficit they face to get back into playoff position, they are unlikely to make it, but their defense gives them a shot. Once they're there, they can shut down any opponent.
They can rush the QB with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Defensively, they allow the fewest points per game in the league at 16.3. They rank 3rd in both defensive passing yards and rushing yards per game. They're +7 in takeaway differential.
Stroud is still questionable for Thursday.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud, QB | INJURED |
| Jalen Pitre, S | INJURED |
| Ed Ingram, G | INJURED |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn, K | INJURED |
For Week 12 Bills-Texans, Buffalo must keep winning in advance of their Week 15 showdown with the Patriots. They still have a chance to win the division, but they must first beat Houston.
This is a big test for Allen as he takes the field without Kincaid. Presumably, Coleman has served his sentence and will be active. Shavers was a revelation against the Bucs. But Houston's defense is very tough and always hits hard.
Without Stroud, Mills needs to avoid mistakes, and the Texans' weak rushing attack led by Woody Marks and Nick Chubb needs to gobble up yards and kill the clock.
Expect a close-pitched battle with underdog Houston keeping the score within 4.5 points.
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Houston Texans +4.5
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