Published Dec 9, 12:10pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 9, 12:10pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Dec 9, 12:11pm ET
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| New England Patriots | Pk (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | Pk (-110) |
Buffalo still has a shot at the AFC East title. But it would require a Patriots collapse for it to happen. The Pats have three games remaining after hosting the Bills. Two will be against prospective playoff teams, the Ravens and Dolphins. Those games sandwich a trip East to play...the Jets.
Suffice it to say that the Pats will not lose to the Jets.
Still, Buffalo can make a statement and make up for the upset loss in Week 5 if they beat New England on their home turf.
The Bills have rebounded after a rough stretch, including losses to the Dolphins and Texans, by beating the Steelers and Bengals. Their Week 14 win over Cincinnati was particularly important given how desperate the Bengals were and that the Bills fell behind by 10 points in the snow with less than nine minutes remaining.
Josh Allen ran 40 yards for a TD; Christian Benford had a pick-6; and Allen threw a TD pass to Jackson Hawes.
Christian Benford makes an incredible play to intercept Joe Burrow for a 67-yard Pick-6!
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
CINvsBUF on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/3G3cXuY7Fs
If they win in New England, they could and probably should run the table with games against the Browns, the flailing Eagles, and the Jets. Given the circumstances, that won't be enough to capture the division.
The Bills can put up the points. James Cook gobbles up yards on the ground. Allen is dangerous with his ability to throw the ball all over the field with accuracy. Of course, he can run too. The defense is vulnerable, particularly against the run. They're ranked 28th in the league in yards per game allowed on the ground.
The Bills tried to beef up their secondary by claiming Darius Slay off waivers from the Steelers. Slay didn't report amid speculation that he would prefer to go back to the Eagles.
ALSO SEE: Falcons vs Buccaneers Week 15 Odds & NFL Pick (Dec 11)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Joshua Palmer, WR | INJURED |
| Spencer Brown, OT | INJURED |
| Terrel Bernard, LB | INJURED |
| Joey Bosa, DE | INJURED |
| Cole Bishop, S | INJURED |
| Ed Oliver, DT | INJURED |
The Patriots have a stranglehold on the AFC East. Head coach Mike Vrabel has undoubtedly emphasized the importance of finishing strong and not reading the positive comments about their turnaround. The beating they put on the Giants in Week 13 before their bye is evidence of that.
Now, the focus is on the #1 seed in the conference. They are jockeying for the spot with the similarly surprising Broncos. Both teams are 11-2. Both have won 10 straight games.
New England's 33-15 win over New York is misleading. They could have put up 50 had they wanted to. And they made sure to hit Jaxson Dart when Dart continued his reckless behavior while running the ball. They will do the same with Allen.
Players had to be separated after Patriots LB Christian Elliss hit Jaxson Dart along the sideline. pic.twitter.com/wZPTVasGSw
— ESPN (@espn) December 2, 2025
The Pats are 2nd in the league in defensive rushing yards per game. Their pass defense has improved as the season progressed. They're now ranked 14th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game.
New England is not going to sneak up on Buffalo this time, but the Pats are for real and with the Ravens and Chiefs out of the way, the Bills may need to go through New England (again) to reach their long-awaited Super Bowl.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Jared Wilson, G | INJURED |
| Khyiris Tonga, DT | INJURED |
| Brenden Schooler, S | INJURED |
| Terrell Jennings, RB | INJURED |
| Will Campbell, OT | INJURED |
In Week 15 Bills-Patriots, the game will be hyped as a showdown. But when peeling away the layers of reality, its importance is muted. The AFC East race is over and the Pats are going to win it. The Bills want to get the highest Wild Card seed possible and that is in question given the bottleneck with the Chargers and the contenders in the AFC South.
Oddsmakers have the game as a pick'em. Expect a tight battle with the Bills pulling it out late.
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