Bengals vs Broncos NFL Pick: Denver Tries to Get to .500 Against a Backup QB (Sep 29)

• For NFL Week 4 Bengals-Broncos, Denver tries to get to .500 after consecutive tough losses by a total of 4 points
• Cincinnati was massacred by the Vikings 48-10 in backup QB Jake Browning’s first start replacing the injured Joe Burrow
• After an opening week victory over the Titans, Denver lost to the Colts 29-28 and then to the Chargers 23-20
• The Bengals beat the Broncos last season to stay alive, briefly, in the AFC playoff race in a game Denver was indifferent about

The Bengals Try to Rebound From a Horrific Performance

Before anything else, people who are suggesting that the Bengals try to trade for Kirk Cousins need to forget it. Owner Mike Brown is not taking that contract.

As for Russell Wilson, he’s not better than Jake Browning.

Nine minutes into the Week 3 game against the Vikings, the Bengals were down 14-0, the second score coming on an Isaiah Rodgers 87-yard interception return of a Browning pass.

Cincinnati was run off the field 48-10. It’s not all on Browning, and Cincinnati’s defense is not good. But this was a bad start for Browning and the Bengals, with Burrow likely out until December at the earliest.

Browning has already thrown 5 picks since taking over for Burrow. They clearly cannot run the same offense they ran under Burrow, which seemed to be what they were trying to do. Browning played well in 2023, the last time he had extended time on the field.

On the ground, Chase Brown has 93 yards for the season on 47 carries. Star receiver Ja’Marr Chase has caught 21 balls in three games. Tee Higgins has caught 7, and Noah Fant has caught 12.

Defensively, they’re ranked 25th against the pass and 21st against the run. They’ve been horrid in every aspect.

Denver Needs to Beat Cincy Before Heading to Philly

The Broncos have been fortunate in the respect that the tough AFC West is struggling from the top down. The Chargers are 3-0. The Broncos are tied with the Raiders and Chiefs at 1-2.

QB Bo Nix has been up and down in 2025, though he did play reasonably efficiently in the Week 3 loss to the Chargers, completing 14 of 25 passes for 153 yards. He threw 1 TD pass and no picks, running for 33 yards on 8 carries.

Their rushing attack has been solid, led by J.K. Dobbins, who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and has 3 rushing TDs.

Denver’s offense came up short in trying to get into field goal range on their last possession in a 20-20 tie with LA. Justin Herbert brought the Chargers down the field for a tying TD to knot it at 20 and then into field goal range for a last-second Cameron Dicker game-winning kick.

The Broncos’ defense has been in the bottom third of the league. They are -1 in takeaway differential.

Expect them to focus on stopping the run, dare Browning to try and push the ball downfield, and capitalize on the Bengals’ QB’s recent penchant for throwing the ball ot the guys in the wrong color uniform.

Bengals vs Broncos Pick

In Week 4 Bengals-Broncos, this is a crucial game for the Broncos. The Bengals can withstand a loss, and given the circumstances, even the most optimistic Cincinnati supporter cannot think they’re going to win.

The Broncos travel to play the Eagles next week, then play the Jets, Giants, Cowboys, Texans, and Raiders, all winnable games for them.

Cincinnati has not shown it can stop anyone, and they can’t run the ball. That will place the onus squarely on Browning. Can he get the ball to Chase and Higgins while avoiding turnovers?

Nix will play ball control and a safety-first game, expecting Browning to make mistakes.

Denver is favored by more than a touchdown, so expect the game to be closer than that, with the Broncos winning, but by less than 7.5 points.