UFC Vegas 106 Picks for Burns vs. Morales and Other Fights on May 17

After a real spectacle with two championship fights last week, Dana White’s organization returns on May 17 with an APEX event. Sure, UFC Vegas 106 is not as interesting as last weekend’s event, but there’s an easy way to make it more exciting – by placing some bets!

If you’re looking for some UFC Vegas 106 picks with great odds, you’re at the right place. We’re now going to analyze the main and co-main event, as well as share our predictions for all remaining matchups on the fight card.

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales – Burns Going to Bed Early

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales odds tell the whole story – “Durinho” is a huge underdog heading into UFC Vegas 106. He’s priced at +600, suggesting that a fourth straight loss is coming his way on May 17.

It’s not only because he’s on a bad run, but also because his next opponent has been on a roll. With UFC Vegas 106 odds of -850, Morales is a massive favorite, and it’s all because of his 17-0 record.

This guy has 12 wins by KO/TKO and a perfect 5-0 UFC record. He’s averaging 5.42 significant strikes per minute, which is more than all but three welterweights.

He dismantled Neil Magny in under five minutes last August, and our prediction is that he’s going to do the same to Burns.

Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato: Someone’s Getting Finished

Paul Craig has a history of shocking the odds, the best example being his +500 win over Magomed Ankalaev a couple of years ago. So, can he pull off another upset at UFC Vegas 106?

Craig is 1-5 in his last six and could be fighting for his UFC future. At 37, he’s been steamrolled recently by Bo Nickal, Johnny Walker, and Brendan Allen, with his most recent win coming via TKO against Andre Muniz.

His opponent, Rodolfo Bellato, is 12-2-1, with nearly 70% of his wins by KO/TKO. The former LFA champ looked sharp in DWCS and finished Ihor Potieria in his UFC debut. All this makes us think he’s heading for another stoppage win.

UFC Vegas 106 Picks for Remaining Fights

• Sodiq Yusuff (+120) vs. Mairon Santos (-140) – Mairon Santos
• Dustin Stolzfus (+240) vs. Nursultan Ruziboev (-280) – Nursultan Ruziboev
• Melquizael Costa (-180) vs. Julian Erosa (+155) – Melquizael Costa
• Gabe Green (+145) vs. Matheus Camilo (-170) – Matheus Camilo
• Jared Gordon (-120) vs. Thiago Moises (+100) – Thiago Moises
• Connor Matthews (+330) vs. Yadier DelValle (-430) – Yadier DelValle
• Tainara Lisboa (+115) vs. Luana Santos (-135) – Luana Santos
• Elise Reed (+425) vs. Denise Gomes (-600) – Denise Gomes
• Luana Pinheiro (+375) vs. Tecia Pennington (-500) – Tecia Pennington

In the main and co-main events of UFC Vegas 106, we expect betting favorites to demolish their opponents. Oddsmakers think this too, which is why the odds they’re offering aren’t too lucrative. The good news is that there are some fights on the preliminary card with much better odds.

One fight that stands out is Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moses, in which we’re backing the +100 underdog. Moises is a very well-rounded fighter whose recent couple of losses all happened to elite opponents – Benoit Saint-Denis, Islam Makhachev, etc.

Another good bet from the preliminary card is Luana Santos. Priced at -135, she brings a lot of value, especially knowing that she’s determined to bounce back on the winning track after last summer’s loss to Casey O’Neill.

When it comes to the UFC Vegas 106 fights we’d avoid, it’s two WMMA fights – Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes and Luana Pinheiro vs. Tecia Pennington. While we do understand why Gomes and Pennington are favored to win, we think their odds are extremely short. This goes especially because they’re fighting pretty decent opponents.