UFC 315 Picks for Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena and Other Fights on May 10

UFC 315 odds bring a lot of value, so betting on the May 10 event at Bell Centre in Montreal is something you shouldn’t miss. Plus, the matchups are super exciting, so even if you haven’t been too crazy about this sport, UFC 315 can turn you into an MMA fan.

In this post, we’ll analyze the most interesting fights, dissecting their odds, and sharing our top predictions for those. We’ll then share with you our top UFC 315 picks for all remaining fights.

Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena Pick: UFC 315 Odds Tell the Right Story

Belal Muhammad gets hate for being “boring,” but the numbers say otherwise. The reigning welterweight champ is 24-3-1 and hasn’t lost since 2019.

After a no-contest with Leon Edwards in 2021 (eye poke), he ran through six opponents before fighting Edwards again, this time for the championship belt. He completely outclassed Edwards in the title fight, racking up a UFC career-best 9 takedowns.

Not only that, but he also landed 21 more significant strikes than the former champ. The big question is can he do something similar at UFC 315?

He’s faced against Jack Della Maddalena (17-2), who’s a knockout artist with 12 wins by KO/TKO. Plus, four of his seven UFC wins came in Round 1. This guy throws nearly 7 significant strikes per minute, which is among the highest numbers in the division.

So, what’s our prediction for the main fight of the evening? We think that Belal will win if it turns into a wrestling match. But if Belal comes through with his promise and fights standing up, it may backfire for him. We just don’t think he’s as good a striker as his Aussie opponent.

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot: UFC Women’s Flyweight Division to Get a New Champ?

Valentina Shevchenko may be a legend, but she’s the underdog at UFC 315. The oddsmakers favor Manon Fiorot to walk out with the flyweight belt.

Shevchenko (24-4-1) reclaimed her title in a war with Alexa Grasso, leaning on her wrestling to get it done. She scored a career-high 8 takedowns and nearly tripled Grasso in significant strikes. Still, that fight exposed some cracks, especially on the feet.

Now she faces Fiorot, who’s 12-1 and hasn’t lost since her pro debut in 2018. The French striker is a volume machine, landing 172 significant strikes in her last bout – that’s significantly more than Shevchenko has ever landed in any fight.

Add in her elite 93% takedown defense, and Fiorot looks like a stylistic nightmare. Valentina’s path to victory is wrestling, but Fiorot might shut that door completely. If the Frenchwoman pulls it off, we’re almost certain the UFC Women’s Flyweight division will get a new queen.

Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi: Aldo’s Swan Song

Jose Aldo came out of retirement last year with a win over Jonathan Martinez, but a close loss to Mario Bautista slowed his comeback. It was a split-decision loss that many thought Aldo didn’t deserve. In fact, some even thought he deserved at least a draw in that fight.

But that’s all in the past. What matters is what happens this coming Saturday in Montreal – Aldo takes on Aiemann Zahabi (12-2), who’s riding a three-fight win streak.

Zahabi blasted Aori Qileng in just 64 seconds and followed up with decision wins over Javid Basharat and Pedro Munhoz. He’ll have the crowd behind him in Quebec, but Aldo’s no stranger to hostile territory. In fact, he’s undefeated when fighting in Canada.

UFC 315 Picks for All Remaining Fights

• Alexa Grasso (+205) vs. Natalia Silva (-240) – Alexa Grasso
• Benoit Saint-Denis (-1200) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+750) – Benoit Saint-Denis
• Mike Malott (-192) vs. Charles Radtke (+167) – Mike Malott
• Jessica Andrade (+250) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (-300) – Jasmine Jasudavicius
• Modestas Bukauskas (-108) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-112) – Modestas Bukauskas
• Navajo Stirling (-265) vs. Ivan Erslan (+225) – Navajo Stirling
• Marc-Andre Barriault (-140) vs. Bruno Silva (+120) – Marc-Andre Barriault
• Daniel Santos (-105) vs. Lee Jeong-yeong (-115) – Daniel Santos
• Brad Katona (+141) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (-161) – Bekzat Almakhan

In most of our UFC 315 picks, we’re going with betting favorites, but there’s one exception – Alexa Grasso. Even though odds suggest she’s going to lose on May 10, we think that she has what it takes to stage an upset and defeat Natalia Silva. After all, Grasso is a former champ whose last three fights saw her go to war with Valentina Shevchenko.

Sure, we’re not 100% certain that Grasso will win, and there are many other bets we think are more likely to win. Benoit Saint-Denis is the safest bet of UFC 315, but his odds are way too short (-1200).

If you’re looking for better value, Canadian fighters Marc-Andre Barriault and Mike Malott are fantastic options. We also think Jasmine Jasudavicius will win, but given her opponent’s background, it might not be an easy win.