Published Jun 10, 6:21pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 10, 6:21pm ET
Updated Jun 10, 6:21pm ET
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| Detroit Tigers | -125 |
| Minnesota Twins | +105 |
Zebby Matthews is 2-3 with a 4.15 ERA. He has the kind of stuff that plays in stretches; a mid-90s fastball and enough secondary movement to miss bats against weaker lineups. The problem is the command. His FIP over his last three starts sits at 5.98 against a season number of 4.57, and that gap tells the story of a pitcher who has been leaving too many pitches in hittable counts. Minnesota has been trending cold as a team, dropping four of five before the current stretch, and Matthews hasn't done enough to carry games on his own.
Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa give the Twins their most reliable run-producing threats. Minnesota is 27-39 on the road this season, and their offense has not been generating consistent run support in away games.
Keider Montero is 2-4 with a 3.95 ERA. The record undersells the performance; Detroit's offense has not provided consistent support in his losses. He's been sharp over his last several outings, working efficiently through lineups and generating ground balls with his sinker-heavy approach. The Tigers have won six of their last ten games and have been one of the better home teams in the AL Central recently.
Detroit is 16-15 at Comerica Park this season. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene give the Tigers lineup two legitimate power threats, and the home crowd has been a factor in their recent run. Against a pitcher like Matthews whose control has been slipping, the Tigers can be patient and wait for their pitches.
Montero at home against a Matthews who has posted a 5.98 FIP over his last three starts. Detroit has won six of ten. Minnesota is one of the worst road teams in the AL. The home edge and the recent form edge both point the same direction.
Tigers.
Pick: Detroit Tigers -125
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Pick
Detroit Tigers -125
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