Published Jun 10, 6:16pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 10, 6:16pm ET
Updated Jun 10, 6:16pm ET
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| Pittsburgh Pirates | +130 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -155 |
Justin Wrobleski is 7-2 with a 2.62 ERA. He carried a no-hit bid into the sixth inning against the Phillies two weeks ago and threw eight shutout innings against the Mets in April. Thats the kind of starts that turn a rotation piece into a staff anchor. His FIP sits at 3.32, which tracks with a pitcher generating weak contact and keeping runners off base. The Dodgers are 43-24 and won 12-3 here Wednesday; Wrobleski steps into the series finale with the team playing its best road baseball of the season.
Mookie Betts, Andy Pages, and Freddie Freeman give Los Angeles three lineup regulars who work counts and punish mistakes. Against a pitcher like Keller who has been inconsistent, the Dodgers' patient approach tends to do the most damage in the fifth and sixth innings when pitch counts climb.
Mitch Keller is 5-3 with a 4.81 ERA. His FIP sits at 3.64, which means the surface ERA is outrunning the underlying metrics, but 4.81 is still the number that matters for run prevention, and his last outing against the Braves was rough: six runs in 4.2 innings. He has allowed three or more earned runs in six of his thirteen starts this season.
Pittsburgh is 34-32 and has been competitive in this series despite losing Wednesday. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen give the Pirates two reliable run producers, and PNC Park can play as a pitcher's park in day games. The home crowd and a genuine talent gap closer than the record suggests are the two things working in Pittsburgh's favor Thursday. They're not enough.
Wrobleski at 2.62 ERA against a Pittsburgh starter who got tagged for six runs in his last outing. Los Angeles won 12-3 on Wednesday and is 20-12 on the road. The Dodgers close out series. -155 is a reasonable price for the gap in pitching quality here.
LA.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -155
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Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers -155
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