Published Apr 1, 8:53pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Apr 1, 8:53pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Apr 1, 8:54pm ET
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| Kansas City Royals | -147 |
| Minnesota Twins | +133 |
As the Twins navigate their new normal after ownership questions, parting ways with President of Baseball Ops Derek Falvey, firing manager Rocco Baldelli, and essentially clearing the decks at the 2025 trade deadline, they are finding their path forward.
Part of that is determining if veteran Taj Bradley can be a rotation centerpiece.
Bradley was with the Rays for three years before being traded to the Twins and had an up-and-down go of it. He posted a 1.7 bWAR in 25 starts in 2024. In 2025 with Tampa and Minnesota, he had a 5.05 ERA and a -0.6 bWAR. After joining the Twins, in 6 starts, he had a 6.61 ERA, allowing 23 earned runs in 31.1 innings.
In his first start of 2026 against the Orioles, he lasted only 4.1 innings, but allowed 3 hits, 1 earned run, walked 3, and struck out 9.
The Twins have not been hitting so far this season, but their lineup is generally weak. Ryan Jeffers, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallmer, and Josh Bell are all batting below .200. Austin Martin has started off hot.
Against Royals starter Cole Ragans, Byron Buxton is batting .333 with a 1.010 OPS. Lewis is 2 for 7 with a home run. Martin is 2 for 4 with a double.
Lefty Cole Ragans was a key part of the Royals' 2024 run to the ALDS. That year, he had a 4.7 bWAR, an 11-9 record, and a 3.14 ERA in 32 starts. His 2025 season was sabotaged by injuries, including a left rotator cuff strain. He made only 13 starts and had a 4.67 ERA. His overall numbers were decent when he pitched, allowing 53 hits in 61.2 innings, walking 20, and striking out 98.
He always has a high K rate per 9 innings.
In his first start of 2026 against the Braves, he allowed 6 hits and 4 earned runs in 4 innings, taking the loss. He walked 4 and struck out 6.
KC has had a rough time at the plate as well. Salvador Perez, Vinny Paquantino, Jonathan India, and Carter Jensen are all under .200. Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has also been struggling with an OPS below .600.
Against Bradley, no current Royals have homered. India is 2 for 8 with a double. Starling Marte is 2 for 2. Perez is 2 for 8 with a double. Witt is 0 for 7 with a walk and 2 K's.
Despite Bradley having a good first start and Ragans struggling, the Royals have the advantage on the mound. Minnesota is simply undermanned and has a long season ahead. KC could make a playoff run similar to the way they did in 2024.
For this matchup, the Royals will break out against Bradley and Ragans will provide a solid start, helping KC take the win.
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Pick
Kansas City Royals -147
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