Published Apr 5, 7:22pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Apr 5, 7:22pm ET
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| Miami Marlins | -118 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +107 |
Reds lefty Brandon Williamson missed the entire 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He had shown moderate promise in 2023, going 5-5 in 23 starts with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.6 bWAR, allowing 111 hits in 117 innings, walking 39, and striking out 98. Opponents hit 18 homers against him.
In 2024, he was limited to 4 appearances before he needed surgery. In his first start of 2026 against the Pirates in 4.2 innings, he allowed 6 hits, 6 earned runs, and 3 homers, taking the loss.
Early in the season, the Reds have struggled mightily at the plate, top to bottom. Ke'Bryan Hayes has been awful with a batting average hovering around .100. Elly De La Cruz has not been hitting for average, but has shown power. TJ Friedl is hitting worse than Hayes.
Only Sal Stewart has been performing with an OPS above 1.200.
Cincinnati has limited exposure to Marlins starter Janson Junk.
Hayes is 1 for 3 with a single. De La Cruz is 0 for 2. Spencer Steer is 1 for 2. No Reds hitter has homered against Hayes, nor have they even had an extra-base hit.
The Marlins won 5 of their first 6 games, but the Yankees brought them back to Earth over the weekend in the Bronx.
Against the Reds, they send Junk to the hill. The journeyman righty is now 30 and is trying to establish himself in Miami's starting rotation. Last season, he made 21 appearances (16 starts), and had a 1.1 bWAR and a 6-4 record. He tossed 110 innings, allowed 112 hits, walked 13, and struck out 77.
In his first start of the 2026 season against the White Sox, Junk was solid in 4.1 innings, allowing 5 hits, 2 earned runs, walking 1, and striking out 5.
Catcher Liam Hicks is hovering around the NL lead in slugging percentage and OPS+. Xavier Edwards, Javier Savoja, and Owen Caissee have all gotten off to great starts as well. But Miami will be judged on how they play against the contenders.
They did not fare well against the Yankees. The Reds are a potential playoff team. So Miami needs to prove something in this series.
Only Austin Slater has faced Williamson. He's done very well with a .500 batting average (3 for 6), with a double and a home run.
Both starting pitchers in the Reds vs Marlins matchup are dealing with individual challenges. Junk wants to prove he can be a reliable starter. Williamson is returning from TJ surgery.
The Reds have not been hitting at all, while the Marlins have several bats who have been pounding the ball. Still, the Marlins' lack of exposure to Williamson should give him enough of an advantage to keep them off the board and allow the Reds to take the win.
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Cincinnati Reds +107
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