Published Mar 14, 1:17pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Mar 14, 1:17pm ET
Grok AI
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| Atlanta Braves | -175 |
| Boston Red Sox | +153 |
The Red Sox made major changes to their roster after a disappointing 2025. Despite adding the likes of Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray to their starting rotation, they need homegrown arms like Brayan Bello to perform if their championship hopes have a chance of coming to pass.
Bello has long been labeled a future star, but has yet to put it together at the big league level for an extended period. In 2025, he had a good year with a 2.5 bWAR, 166.2 innings pitched, 147 hits allowed, 59 walks, and 124 strikeouts.
By now, this is what the BoSox can reasonably expect from him. Good, but not elite.
He's made 2 starts this spring and has gotten bashed around, allowing 9 earned runs in 3.1 innings. But it's spring training and isn't anything to worry about.
Many key Red Sox players are still at the WBC, playing for their respective countries. That has opened the door for the likes of Mickey Gasper, who is batting .364 with 2 homers as he hopes to make the roster.
Top prospect Kristian Campbell, who had a hot start last season and was rewarded with a long-term contract before slumping, continues to struggle, batting .206.
Bryce Elder looked like he was heading for stardom in 2023 when he was 12-4 with a 2.7 bWAR and made the All-Star team.
Since then, he's struggled badly. His ERA in 2024 was 6.52. In 2025, it was 5.30. The Braves are short in their starting rotation, so they need him to be at least functional.
Elder hasn't pitched very well this spring. In 8.1 innings, he's allowed 6 earned runs on 11 hits, walked 3, and struck out 6.
At the plate, veteran outfielder Mike Yastrzemski is still hot, batting .435 with a 1.552 OPS and 4 homers. Matt Olson has 3 homers and a .930 OPS. Mauricio Dubon is batting .320 in 28 plate appearances. Kyler Farmer is hitting .481 with a 1.130 OPS.
They have several players away at the WBC, including Ronald Acuña.
This is a critical start for Elder. If he continues to pitch poorly, the Braves will have no alternative but to search for alternatives. As for Bello, he's a linchpin in the Red Sox rotation, so he simply needs to get ready for the regular season.
Atlanta has gotten off to a great spring start under new manager Walt Weiss. They will undoubtedly want to keep that going. Expect a better performance from Elder and for the Braves to notch the win.
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Atlanta Braves -175
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