Published Mar 25, 10:51am ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Mar 25, 10:51am ET
Updated Mar 25, 10:51am ET
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| New York Mets | -110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +100 |
Paul Skenes has been in the majors for two years after having been the #1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.
In 2024, he won the Rookie of the Year and finished 3rd in the CYA voting with a 1.96 ERA, an 11-3 record, and 170 K's in 133 innings. He followed that up with an even better sophomore season, winning the CYA, posting a major league leading 1.97 ERA, striking out 216 batters in 187.2 innings, walking only 42, and surrendering 136 hits.
As with every homegrown star, the Pirates always need to worry about whether they will be able to lock them into a long-term contract and make it worth their while beyond money by putting together a contending team.
Seemingly understanding this, the Pirates were relatively aggressive (for them) this past offseason by pursuing big-name free agents like Kyle Schwarber. They didn't get Schwarber, but they signed veterans Ryan O'Hearn and Marcell Ozuna. For once, they didn't gut the place and chalk it up to planning for a winning future that history shows will never come.
The team did play well under interim manager Don Kelly last season, finishing with a 59-65 record with him in charge. After the season, they named him full-time manager.
For the Pirates against Mets starter Freddy Peralta, Joey Bart is 1 for 2 with a home run and 3 RBIs. Oneil Cruz is batting .077, but has a home run. Nick Gonzales is batting .200 in 10 at-bats, but has a home run and 5 RBIs. Ozuna is batting .200 with 4 RBI. Bryan Reynolds is at .385 with a 1.031 OPS and a home run.
After their disappointing 83-79 season and a slow collapse after a hot start, Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns turned over the roster and, more importantly, the clubhouse dynamic. Stearns likely wanted to make substantive changes after he took over, but didn't (couldn't) because of the team's surprising 2024 run to the NLCS.
Part of the reconstruction was trading for a new pitching ace, Freddy Peralta.
Stearns was running the Brewers when Peralta broke into the majors.
The righty was 5th in the NL CYA voting last season, leading the NL in wins with 17 and posting a 5.4 bWAR. He gives the Mets what they were missing: a horse at the top of the starting rotation.
They moved on from 1st baseman Pete Alonso, utility man Jeff McNeil, and outfielder Brandon Nimmo. Closer Edwin Diaz fled for the Dodgers.
They added relievers Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, and Tobias Myers. For the lineup, they signed Jorge Polanco and Bo Bichette. Marcus Semien was acquired to play 2nd base. To man center field, they traded for Luis Robert. Rookie Carson Benge won the starting right field job with Juan Soto moving to left.
Mets batters have had limited success against Skenes. Francisco Lindor is 2 for 6. Bichette is 1 for 3 with an RBI. Mark Vientos is 2 for 3 with a double.
While the Mets have historically been very good on opening day with a 41-23 record, that is largely an irrelevant statistic. For this matchup against the Pirates, they're facing a dominating starter in Skenes.
As much as the lineup has been altered and as good as Peralta is, they can't win if they don't score. Although Skenes will not be in the game for more than 95 pitches or so, trying to get his pitch count up won't work because he throws too many strikes.
The Pirates will take the opener behind their star pitcher. Naturally, Mets fans will begin to panic immediately.
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Pittsburgh Pirates +100
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