Published Apr 11, 7:40pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Apr 11, 7:40pm ET
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| Detroit Tigers | -195 |
| Miami Marlins | +175 |
Sandy Alcantara struggled in 2025, his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, going 11-12 with a 0.2 bWAR, and a 5.36 ERA. He did start 31 games and showed he was healthy.
Now, he's back to his CYA form after 3 starts.
Already, he has a 1.1 bWAR, a 0.74 ERA, and a complete game shutout. He leads the majors in innings pitched with 24.1, has allowed 10 hits, 2 earned runs. walked 4, and struck out 18.
The Marlins have lost 6 of 9 after a 5-1 start. Liam Hicks has understandably cooled down after a blazing start, but still has an .878 OPS and 3 homers. Owen Caissie has an .873 OPS and 2 homers. Xavier Edwards has a slash of .357/.410/.536.
Against Skubal, Heriberto Hernandez is 2 for 2 with a home run. Agustin Ramirez is 1 for 2 with a home run. Edwards is 0 for 2 with a K.
Tarik Skubal has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball over the past two seasons. He's set to be a free agent at the end of the year and is going for his 3rd straight CYA.
In his first two starts, he tossed 13 innings, allowed 9 hits and 1 earned run. His third start was shaky, allowing 8 hits and 4 earned runs in 4.2 innings in a loss to the Twins.
Detroit has won 2 straight over Miami after losing 5 straight.
Javier Baez has been hot. His average is up to .324 with an .851 OPS. Colt Keith is batting .354. Kevin McGonigle is at .291 with an .817 OPS. The rest of the lineup, including key contributors Riley Greene, Zach McKinstry, Gleyber Torres, and Spencer Torkelson are all scuffling at the plate.
Against Alcantara, Greene is 2 for 3 with a double and a home run. Baez is 5 for 18 with a double. Torres is 1 for 13. Matt Vierling is 0 for 8 with 4 K's. Kerry Carpenter is 2 for 3 with 2 singles.
This is a headlining pitching matchup with two stars facing off. Alcantara has been brilliant this season. Skubal has been very good. Since the Tigers have been having hitting woes and the Marlins have several hot bats, it will come down to which pitcher will keep the opponents down
Alcantara will continue his hot start and outduel Skubal, giving the Marlins the win.
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Pick
Miami Marlins +175
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