Published May 14, 3:46am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 14, 3:46am ET
Updated May 14, 3:46am ET
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| Los Angeles Dodgers | -175 |
| San Francisco Giants | +144 |
Landen Roupp is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA and a 2.55 FIP. That FIP is real — he has been pitching better than most starters in this division, keeping contact manageable and working deep into games. There is nothing wrong with how he is throwing the ball right now. The problem is where he is throwing it and who is in the other dugout.
The Giants lineup comes in with a .656 OPS as a team. That is not an offense that punishes pitchers who make mistakes. It is not an offense that strings together big innings against a starter who is locating well. When Roupp is at his best, this lineup has very little answer for him, and that actually works against the pick because the Giants will need runs to win this game.
Emmet Sheehan's ERA is 4.79. His FIP is 3.85. The gap between them tells you the ERA is running hot — he has been allowing hard contact to produce more damage than his underlying stuff suggests it should. He has had stretches this season where batters squared him up, and the box scores captured it. What the box scores do not capture is how many of those runs came from inherited situations, from one bad inning that inflated everything.
The Dodgers offense is the entire reason to be here tonight. Their team OPS sits at .775, which is one of the higher marks in baseball. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts are three of the most dangerous hitters in the league at the same time in the same lineup. The Giants can pitch around one of them. They cannot pitch around all three. Roupp is good enough to keep it close, but keeping it close and winning it are different things against this lineup.
Roupp is the better pitcher tonight. That is true. Los Angeles wins anyway because the Giants lineup does not score enough runs to take advantage of what their starter gives them, and the Dodgers lineup will find Sheehan's ERA eventually. The OPS gap between these two teams is too wide to pick the other side. We expect Los Angeles to win.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -175
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Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers -175
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