Published May 31, 9:14am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 31, 9:14am ET
Updated May 31, 9:14am ET
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| Tampa Bay Rays | -205 |
| Los Angeles Angels | +168 |
Jack Kochanowicz has a 4.99 ERA and a 4.50 FIP. His FIP over his last three starts is 5.59. The trajectory is the problem; his season average is already elevated, and the recent form is moving further in the wrong direction. He has been giving up hard contact at a rate that has not stabilized over the last month.
The Angels' lineup has not been generating runs consistently on the road. They are capable of keeping a game close with a strong defensive inning or two, but scoring enough against McClanahan at Tropicana requires a performance Los Angeles has not been producing with regularity.
Shane McClanahan has a 2.52 ERA and a 2.87 FIP. Both numbers are saying the same thing: he has been genuinely excellent. His FIP is running just above his ERA, which means the surface results are largely earned. He is 5-2 on the season and has been the most reliable arm in Tampa Bay's rotation by a significant margin.
The Rays' lineup behind him has been productive at home all season. Tampa Bay is 20-6 at Tropicana Field, the best home record in the American League, and their bullpen holds a meaningful FIP edge over Los Angeles' relief corps. McClanahan does not need late-inning help on most days, but it is there if he does.
McClanahan's FIP is nearly two full runs better than Kochanowicz's, and Kochanowicz has been trending the wrong way. Tampa is 20-6 at home with the better bullpen and the better lineup.
-205 is a number you pay when the matchup is this clean. McClanahan at home. Rays.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -205
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Pick
Tampa Bay Rays -205
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