Published Mar 25, 8:29pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Mar 25, 8:29pm ET
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Updated Mar 25, 8:31pm ET
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| Houston Astros | -1.5 (+115) |
| Los Angeles Angels | +1.5 (-135) |
The Angels were 72-90 in 2025. It was their 10th consecutive losing season. Bear in mind that in several seasons, they had both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in their lineup.
For 2026, they didn't spend big money, but they have brought in veterans on short-term deals, hoping they will be motivated to have a big year and net a longer-term contract. Even their rookie manager, Kurt Suzuki, is on a short-term deal.
This will almost assuredly fail.
For Opening Day, they cling to the hopes they've had for the past decade that their haphazard management will yield different results.
Righty Jose Soriano takes the start. In 2025, he posted a 2.3 bWAR in 31 starts, had a 4.26 ERA, allowed 158 hits in 169 innings, walked 78, and struck out 152.
LA outfielder Jo Adell is coming off a 37-homer season. Against Hunter Brown, he has 1 homer in 10 at-bats. Josh Lowe has a .333 average in 6 at-bats with a home run. Oswald Peraza is 3 for 4 with a home run and 2 RBI. Mike Trout has 1 hit in 6 at-bats.
The Astros have gotten to the point where they simply expect to make the playoffs and contend for a championship. That made the 2025 collapse such a shock to them. However, there were signs that they might not be as good as advertised.
They are no longer a home run machine, hitting only 182 last season. Their primary outfielders provided almost no power with Jake Meyers and Cam Smith combining for 12 home runs. But Smith is a top prospect who will grow into his power.
Yordan Alvarez was limited to 48 games and hit 6 homers.
In 2026, they will have Carlos Correa for the full season. They allowed erstwhile pitching ace Framber Valdez to leave as a free agent. Closer Josh Hader will start the season on the injured list.
Opening Day starter Hunter Brown was their best overall starter in 2025 with a 6.1 bWAR, a 12-9 record, and a 2.43 ERA. He allowed 133 hits in 185.1 innings, striking out 206 and walking 57.
Against Soriano, only Christian Walker has hit a home run. The 1st baseman has a .333 average in 9 at-bats. Meyers is 1 for 3, as is Alvarez. Jose Altuve is 0 for 3.
Houston needs to get off to a good start. If not, manager Joe Espada will be on the hot seat sooner than later.
The Angels are not a good team and their strategy is ridiculous. All they're doing is putting together a roster that will look out for themselves once they realize they are not contenders.
Houston is in a different position, but it's no less fraught. They're getting older. While it's not Espada's fault that they're fading, someone needs to take the blame if expectations are not met.
For this game, Brown is one of baseball's best pitchers and he should do a number on the Angels and bring the victory home for Houston.
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Houston Astros -1.5 (+115)
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