Published Oct 26, 9:04pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Oct 26, 9:04pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Oct 26, 9:04pm ET
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| Los Angeles Dodgers | -195 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +175 |
Injuries limited the 41-year-old Scherzer to 17 starts during the 2025 regular season. A thumb injury led to a lat injury. He posted a 5-5 record, allowed 87 hits in 85 innings, walked 23, and struck out 82.
Scherzer started and got the win in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Mariners, logging 5.2 innings, allowing 3 hits, and 2 earned runs. He walked 4 and struck out 5, surrendering a home run to Josh Naylor.
He demanded to stay in the game when manager John Schneider appeared ready to pull him. It worked and he got through the inning.
Against Tyler Glasnow, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 6 for 17 with 2 doubles, a home run, and 4 walks. George Springer is 6 for 13 with a home run. Andres Gimenez is 2 for 8 with a homer.
No other Blue Jay has had any success when facing Tyler Glasnow. However, the Dodgers' 6'8" righty has had control problems in 2025, averaging 4.3 walks per 9 innings. Expect Toronto to try to get his pitch count up to force LA manager Dave Roberts to go to his bullpen early. Perhaps this is a game where we will see Clayton Kershaw in relief.
Scherzer spent half a season with the Dodgers in 2021 and was unhappy with how LA used him. It was part of the reason he chose not to re-sign with them as a free agent.
Scherzer said the Dodgers limiting his pitch count and trying to keep him fresh for the postseason lowered his work capacity and he thinks led to his dead arm. Said in DC he was relied on and pushed to consistently go 110 pitches every five days so more built up for ‘19 WS run
— Britt Ghiroli (@Britt_Ghiroli) December 1, 2021
Injuries also shortened Glasnow's season. He had shoulder inflammation early in the season. Near season's end, he had a back problem.
He started 18 games, tossed 90.1 innings, gave up only 56 hits, walked 43, struck out 106, and allowed 10 homers.
In the 2025 postseason, he's been excellent in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance, allowing 7 hits, striking out 18, and walking 8 in 13.1 innings.
Against Scherzer, Freddie Freeman has the most experience from their days with the Nationals and Braves, respectively. He's had 11 hits in 55 at-bats with 4 doubles and 3 home runs.
Mookie Betts is 3 for 10 with a home run. Tommy Edman is 6 for 16 with a double and a homer. Max Muncy is 4 for 20 with a home run. Miguel Rojas is 9 for 37 with 3 doubles and a home run. Shohei Ohtani is 2 for 6 with a double.
Often, World Series Game 3 is the turning point after teams split the first two. Approximately 56% of the teams that won Game 3 after splitting the first two went on to win the series. It's not a guarantee, but it certainly helps.
Glasnow dominated the Brewers in the NLCS, and the Blue Jays have a similar approach at the plate. Given how wild Glasnow has been this season, Toronto must make him throw strikes. If he's wild, they can get him out of the game and take their shots against LA's shaky bullpen.
Scherzer's stuff has diminished from his annual Cy Young contention years, but he makes up for some of that with competitiveness and experience. But he will not intimidate the Dodgers.
LA should resist the urge to use Kershaw. This is no time for sentiment.
As long as they adhere to what will win the game rather than what the home fans will like, the Dodgers should take Game 3 and have a 2-1 series lead with Ohtani ready to pitch in Game 4.
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Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers -195
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