MLB Playoffs: Padres vs Cubs NL Wild Card Pick — Can San Diego Finally Break Through?

• In the Padres-Cubs MLB Wild Card matchup, San Diego tries to break through once and for all, while Chicago makes its first postseason appearance in 5 years
• The Padres (90-72) made their usual flurry of aggressive midseason moves to try to reach that elusive World Series
• The Cubs (92-70) have made their 1st postseason series in five years
• San Diego and Chicago split their 6 games in 2025

Can the Padres Finally Live Up to the Attention They Generate?

Every year, the Padres win the hot stove title. Then they win the MLB trade deadline title.

But when it comes to actually playing in the postseason, they inevitably flame out, if they make it at all.

In 2025, they made the playoffs but finished 3 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, so they will start the playoffs in the Wild Card round on the road in Chicago.

The Padres’ strength is their superlative bullpen. If they have a lead past the sixth inning, manager Mike Shildt can trot out Adrian Morejon, Mason Miller with his 104-mph fastballs, and Robert Suarez. The key is getting a lead and getting them the ball.

Offensively, San Diego has exploitable holes in its lineup and will be without Ramon Laureano.

Xander Bogaerts had a subpar season with 11 homers and a .720 OPS. Jackson Merrill endured a sophomore slump after a superlative rookie year with 16 homers and 67 RBI in an injury-shortened season. Fernando Tatis Jr. slowed down after a searing hot start, ending with 25 homers and an .814 OPS with state-of-the-art defense in right field.

The streaky Manny Machado had 27 homers and a .795 OPS. As always, he doesn’t hustle at all.

The starting rotation is shaky. Veteran Nick Pivetta had his best season and will start the opener. In 31 starts, he posted a 5.3 bWAR, striking out 190 in 181.2 innings, allowing 129 hits. Dyland Cease had a poor year overall, going 8-12 in 32 starts with a 1.1 bWAR. Yu Darvish was up and down, but he has extensive postseason experience.

If the Padres don’t get the ball to the bullpen with a lead, they’re going to lose.

The Cubs Live and Die by Their Offense

Eight of the Cubs’ nine everyday players had double-digits in home runs. The one who didn’t, 2nd baseman Nico Hoerner, led the team with a 6.1 bWAR. Although Chicago does not get on base at a great clip, they make up for it with power, speed, and defense.

Pete Crow-Armstrong hit 31 homers, stole 35 bases, and plays an excellent center field. Michael Busch had 34 homers. Kyle Tucker, who was activated to play in the Wild Card series off the injured list with a calf injury, had 22 homers, 25 stolen bases, and an .841 OPS.

The Cubs’ pitching is passably mediocre. Veteran Matthew Boyd led the rotation with a 14-8 record, a 3.21 ERA, 154 hits allowed in 179.2 innings, and a 2.6 bWAR. The rest of the rotation — Collin Rea, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Cade Horton — are not asked to win games on their own. Horton, probably their best starter, is on the injured list with a rib injury.

The bullpen is similarly mediocre, with closer Daniel Palencia vulnerable to the home run ball. Brad Keller was solid in 2025 with a 2.07 ERA and 75 K’s in 69.2 innings.

If the Padres keep the Cubs’ batters in the park, Chicago will have a hard time winning.

Padres vs Cubs MLB Wild Card Pick

Both teams have inherent flaws in different areas that, if exploited, will lead to them losing. The Cubs need to hit home runs to win. The Padres must get a lead and hand the game over to their bullpen.

Which team has the better chance to overcome those flaws?

The Padres are a veteran team that has been here before. The Cubs are relatively young, with many players having limited exposure to the playoffs. Expect San Diego to hold Chicago’s bashers down and take the series because they have a slightly better starting rotation and a better bullpen.