Published Oct 12, 12:49pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Oct 12, 12:49pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Oct 12, 12:49pm ET
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| Milwaukee Brewers | +189 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -225 |
LA had an unusually difficult 2025 regular season. Despite its star power and status as the defending World Series champs, they suffered through an injury-plagued and streaky campaign. They still won 93 games and their fourth straight NL West title, but it was a slog.
In retrospect, the Dodgersâ regular season struggles appear to have been tacit acknowledgements that getting into the postseason was the key. If they didnât get the home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (which they didnât), so be it. If they needed to put players on the injured list and nurse them so they were healthy when it counted, so be it.Â
Blake Snell was limited to 11 starts in the regular season with left shoulder inflammation, but has been their number 1 starter in the playoffs and has pitched well.
Tyler Glasnow had back tightness and a shoulder problem and made only 18 starts in the regular season, but heâs been a crucial part of their postseason run.
The club put forth the impression that if Shohei Ohtani took the mound, it would be to keep him happy and not to serve as a major cog. But he has been a major cog on the mound in the playoffs. He batted .056 in the NLDS win over the Phillies. As a pitcher, he tossed 6 innings, giving up 3 runs, striking out 9, and getting the win in Game 1.
LA won the series on Philliesâ reliever Orion Kerkeringâs error to allow the winning run to score.
"OH MY GOODNESS" đŁïž
— ESPN Australia & NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) October 10, 2025
Just like that, the Dodgers punch their ticket to the NLCS. Dodger Stadium is in absolute chaos. For Orion Kerkering, itâs a crushing way to end it.#MLB pic.twitter.com/h2JZsxZG9y
Empathy for Kerkering aside, this is a pitcher fielding practice and awareness mistake. Many teams do not pay as close attention to these fundamentals as others. The Dodgers do pay attention to it. It was one of the main reasons they dismantled the Yankees in the 2024 World Series. It was so bad that they claimed, after the fact, that the Yankeesâ poor defense and inept baserunning would make the difference in the series.
And it did.
Against the Brewers, however, they are focused on the fundamentals just as much, if not more. Milwaukee must do that to compete with the big-money teams they keep beating in the playoffs.Â
The Dodgersâ star-laden bullpen fizzled out, but in the playoffs, it was excellent with unexpected names like Roki Sasaki. Signed from Japan over the winter to boost the rotation, he was injured and wild, posting a 4.46 ERA, walking 22 in 36.1 innings, and surrendering 6 homers. His strikeout percentage wasnât great, whiffing only 28. This is a far cry from the 524 he Kâd in 414.2 innings during his time with Chiba Lotte.  Â
In the playoffs, LA has settled on him as its ace reliever. He has pitched in 4 postseason games, saved 2, walked none(!), and struck out 5 in 5.1 innings. But the Brewers are not as feast or famine as the Phillies and will let Sasaki walk them.
The Dodgers only hit 2 homers in the Phillies series, and they were not hit by Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, or Ohtani. Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Edman hit them.
If theyâre going to beat Milwaukee, they must hit the ball out of the park.
On May 28th, the Brewers were 28-28 and 6.5 games behind the Cubs, 3.5 games behind the Cardinals, and tied with the Reds in the NL Central.
From that day, they won 69 and lost 37 and finished 5 games ahead of the Cubs with a payroll of around $90 million less. Then they beat the Cubs â and the manager, Craig Counsell, who abandoned them â in 5 games in the NLDS.
The season in general exemplified team play and the importance of doing the small things for big results.
Milwaukee hit 7 homers in the NLDS, including a key Game 5 blast from Brice Turang.
Brice Turang's 7th inning HR sent the @Brewers faithful into a frenzy! đ
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) October 12, 2025
(Via @Mastercard #BallparkCam) pic.twitter.com/Endnl7wAOo
Jackson Chourio, nursing a hamstring strain, batted .389 with a 1.850 OPS and a home run, led Milwaukeeâs regulars. Andrew Vaughn had 2 homers and a 1.126 OPS.
On the mound, rookie Jacob Misiorowski had a 1.29 ERA, tossed 7 innings, Kâd 7, and allowed 4 hits, taking 2 wins. Abner Uribe is having a star turn as their ace reliever.
The names on the back of the jersey are secondary to the name on the front. Manager Pat Murphy succeeded Counsell as manager. As a respected former college coach at Notre Dame and Arizona State, he knows the value of harping on the basics. Thatâs fine in college where the coach has all the power. In MLB, it takes nuance to get the players to buy in. With the Brewers, they have bought in.
Theyâre a sum of their parts with budding stars like Chourio.
On paper, the Brewers are no match for the Dodgersâ star power. However, on the field, they dominated LA during the regular season. They never give up when they are down and pick away with speed and clutch home runs from unexpected sources.
Catcher William Contreras has a penchant for big home runs, having hit 2 against the Cubs. Christian Yelich is the elder statesman on the roster and is two months from turning 34. The former MVP is no longer the megastar he once was. But he still hit 29 homers, stole 16 bases, and had a 3.1 bWAR in 2025.Â
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Tanner Scott, LAD | INJURED |
| Brock Stewart, LAD | INJURED |
| Kirby Yates, LAD | INJURED |
| Michael Kopech, LAD | INJURED |
| Logan Henderson, MIL | INJURED |
| Brandon Woodruff, MIL | INJURED |
The gut reaction for the Dodgers-Brewers NLCS is that high-priced Hollywood will overwhelm Middle-American pluck and ingenuity. The sheer financial disparity would often be enough to think the Dodgers are going to win.
Still, even though the Dodgers are more than just a collection of stars and soundly play the game, the Brewersâ game is more resistant to slumps. They catch the ball, they steal bases, they hit home runs when needed, and they fight back from adversity. They are also healthier than LA.Â
In the dugout, Murphy is far superior to Dave Roberts, who is prone to gaffes as he desperately adheres to the edicts and options given him by the front office. Roberts could be replaced today and the team would not notice he was gone.
Do not trust Sasaki as the closer. Milwaukee is playing with magic this season, and despite LA seeming to have righted itself in the playoffs, they will be the latest big-money, big city team to fall to the Brewers, who will win the series and the NL pennant in 6 games.Â
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