Published Oct 11, 12:45pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Oct 11, 12:45pm ET
Grok AI
|
|
|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | -142 |
| Seattle Mariners | +122 |
The Mariners have been a team of phases.
After they came into existence as an expansion team in 1977, they did not have a winning season until 1991. Their first playoff appearance was in 1995. In that era, led by Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, and Jay Buhner, they were generally an annual contender.
Then they transitioned to an Ichiro Suzuki-led squad, made the playoffs in his first season, and stumbled. They had a few winning seasons, rebuilt several times, and have now been a nominal contender for the past six seasons.
They have not made the ALCS since 2001, a year in which they won 116 games before being bounced by the Yankees.
The current incarnation of the Mariners, built by President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto, relies on a deep starting rotation and lots and lots of home runs, particularly by Cal Raleigh who hit 60 and drove in 125.
After overtaking the Astros to win the AL West, they outlasted the Tigers in 5 games in the ALDS, culminating in the walkoff hit by Jorge Polanco in the 15th inning.
JORGE POLANCO WINS IT IN THE 15TH INNING!
— MLB (@MLB) October 11, 2025
THE @MARINERS ARE HEADING TO THE ALCS!!! pic.twitter.com/IEb6DLrHaY
The M’s rely heavily on their starting pitchers, a vast departure from what most MLB teams do today (and that includes the Blue Jays), with Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller.
Woo missed the ALDS with a pectoral injury but will be activated for the ALCS.
Their bullpen has been excellent, led by closer Andres Munoz and Matt Brash.
Against the Tigers, Raleigh hit .381, but the rest of the Mariners’ bats struggled with a .207 average.
Seattle wins by hitting home runs and getting depth from their starting pitchers. They do not steal bases, and they strike out a ton. They are just passable defensively. This is the opposite of how the Blue Jays operate.
Toronto had a poor start. They were 4 games below .500 on May 7th, and speculation about the future of manager John Schneider and even team President Mark Shapiro was in the air.
From that point on, they were 78-48, won the AL East by virtue of a better head-to-head record with the Yankees, and dropped New York in 4 games in the ALDS.
The Jays played a far different game than the Yankees, Mariners, and other AL competitors.
Ironically, their hitting style was comparable to that of their bench coach and Yankees legend Don Mattingly. They do hit home runs, but it’s not the prime directive of their existence. They do not walk much, nor do they steal bases, but they don’t strike out either. Only two hitters in their regular lineup – George Springer and Addison Barger – struck out more than 100 times.
Contrary to the M’s, the Jays’ starting rotation is not deep. They are not relying on it for the playoffs. A bullpen full of unheralded arms has come to the forefront.
For the Yankees series, three of their primary starters, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, and Jose Berrios, were not on the roster. Bassitt had a back issue; Berrios had elbow inflammation; and Scherzer has not pitched well. So, it was Kevin Gausman and staff for every game in the ALDS
And it worked.
Such names as Brendon Little, Trey Yesavage, and Louis Varland played key roles on the mound. At the plate, Barger and Nathan Lukes both batted .333. Daulton Varsho hit .438; Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit .529 with 3 home runs.
Their bats pummeled the Yankees, scoring 34 runs in the four games.
Toronto is the type of team whose secondary players behind their luminous star, Guerrero, are not impressive at first glance. But they make contact and, despite a few key errors against the Yankees preventing a sweep, play solid defense. Their big-name free agent signing last offseason, Anthony Santander, was horrific with injuries and a .565 OPS. He was 2 for 10 in the ALDS.
They won without the above-mentioned pitchers. Starting shortstop Bo Bichette was out with a knee injury.
For a 7-game series, they cannot go solely with bullpen games behind Gausman, so expect Bassitt to be back on the roster if he’s healthy.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Bryan Woo, SEA | INJURED |
| Bo Bichette, TOR | INJURED |
| Jose Berrios, TOR | INJURED |
| Ty France, TOR | INJURED |
| Chris Bassitt, TOR | INJURED |
The contrasting styles between the teams will make for an intriguing Mariners-Blue Jays ALCS.
Seattle wants to hammer the ball out of the park. Toronto builds runs by moving the line on the bases. Seattle pushes its starters as deep as possible into games, while Toronto yanks its starters after a designated number of pitches or immediately when they get into trouble.
The style of play benefits Toronto when they go on the road to Seattle, where it is harder to hit home runs.
Woo is expected to be on the roster, but is he compromised?
Bassitt is older, and back injuries are tricky. Bichette has a PCL strain and has been jogging. He is not going to be at full strength if he’s on the roster. If he is on the roster, they will not put him at shortstop and compromise the defense while his movement is limited. He’ll be a pinch-hitter and perhaps a DH.
Toronto must corral Raleigh, which they will likely do by simply pitching around him and taking their chances with the rest of the M’s lineup.
No one really stops Guerrero, but the M’s need to limit the traffic on the bases in front of him.
This will be a long series and come down to which team maximizes its strengths. For the Jays, that is their contact hitting and defense; for the M’s, it is their starting pitching and Raleigh.
Ultimately, the Blue Jays will win in 7 games and take their first pennant since their second consecutive World Series in 1993.
|
Pick
Toronto Blue Jays (-142)
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
