Last updated May 17, 9:29pm ET

  • Our Mets vs Yankees pick assesses the rubber game of the 3-game series between the NYC rivals in the Bronx
  • The Yankees won the first game easily; the Mets won a tightly fought contest in the second game
  • Max Fried heads to the hill for the Yankees; the Mets counter with David Peterson
  • Juan Soto has had a quiet series, apart from the ear-splitting booing, but has walked 4 times
TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
New York Mets+1.5 (-145)+145O 8.5 (-120)
New York Yankees-1.5 (+125)-160U 8.5 (+100)

Mets Need Peterson To Match Fried

David Peterson has developed into one of the Mets’ most reliable starters. He has pitched at least 5 innings in every start this season but one. He has not surrendered more than 3 earned runs in any one of his starts.

The Yankees have not had much success against Peterson. Trent Grisham is 1 for 4 with a single. Anthony Volpe is 1 for 3 with a single. No other Yankee hitter, including Aaron Judge, who is 0 for 1, has recorded a hit. Judge and DJ LeMahieu each have a walk.

Juan Soto has been the focus of this series, with Yankees fans booing him relentlessly for having the audacity to accept the highest financial offer in MLB history from the Mets. He has hit several balls hard in the first two games with only a single to show for it. But he has walked 4 times.

Soto has been good this season, but not the one-man gang he usually is and was for the Yankees in their pennant-winning season of 2024. He has an .840 OPS, 8 home runs, and 37 walks. It’s only a matter of when, not if, he starts hitting the ball out of the park.

Fried is No Stranger to the Mets

Max Fried is dominating in his first season as a Yankee, but the Mets have faced him many times from his days with the Braves. So far, the lefty is leading the majors with a 1.11 ERA and a 6-0 record. He has a 2.2 bWAR, has allowed 40 hits in 56.2 innings, and has allowed only 7 earned runs. In addition, he has walked 13 and struck out 52.

Several Mets have hit Fried quite well.

Pete Alonso is 10 for 36 with a double and 2 home runs. Francisco Lindor is only 3 for 28, but does have a homer. Jeff McNeil is 10 for 31 with 3 doubles. Soto is 9 for 27 with a double, 2 home runs, and 5 walks. Tyrone Taylor is 2 for 7 with a home run.

Judge hasn’t done much this series, but he is still batting .402 with a 1.241 OPS and 15 home runs. The Mets have also controlled Trent Grisham. Cody Bellinger has his average up to .241 with 6 homers, including one on Saturday, after a woeful start.

LeMahieu is making his presence felt in his first week back in the majors after missing the first month-and-a-half of the season with a strained calf. He has been playing excellent defense and also homered on Saturday.

Mets vs Yankees Pick: Bombers Take the Series Behind Fried

As well as Peterson has pitched, Fried has been among the best pitchers in baseball all season long. The Mets do have experience against him, but he should hold them down enough for the Yankees to take the win, the series, and bragging rights…for now.

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Yankees Moneyline (-160)
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Paul Lebowitz
Paul Lebowitz

Writer, Columnist

Paul is an experienced sportswriter and novelist from NYC with expertise in sports analysis and betting. His work has appeared on platforms like ESPN and YES Network, delivering engaging and objective insights to a diverse audience.

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