Mariners vs Astros Pick: Kirby Makes His Return for Seattle (May 21)

• Our Mariners vs Astros pick examines two teams with pitchers getting back into their routines after injuries
• Seattle sends George Kirby to the hill for his 1st start after suffering from shoulder inflammation in spring training
• Lance McCullers Jr. makes his 4th start after missing 2 full seasons due to a flexor tendon injury and setbacks
• Seattle is 28-20 and in 1st place in the AL West; Houston is 25-24 and in 2nd place in the AL West

Kirby, One of Baseball’s Best Young Starters, Returns

George Kirby is one of MLB‘s top young starters. The 27-year-old righty has been eerily consistent since making it to the Show in 2022. His ERA settled in the area of 3.4 every season. He has had the best strikeout-to-walk rate in the past two seasons.

The team stayed afloat and more without him since he was shelved in spring training with shoulder inflammation, but with Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller both out with injuries, Kirby’s effective return is imperative to them staying in first place.

Against Kirby, the Astros have a cumulative batting average of .198. Jose Altuve is 2 for 17 with 2 singles. Yainer Diaz is 4 for 15, all singles. Jeremy Pena is 4 for 19. No Astro has homered against Kirby.

Cal Raleigh is having an All-Star season with 16 homers and a .954 OPS. Jorge Polanco has been excellent with a .942 OPS and 10 homers. Julio Rodriguez is still trying to find his form, but has 10 homers and a .724 OPS.

McCullers’ Last Start Was Promising

Lance McCullers Jr. threw 47.2 big league innings in 2022 before his elbow gave way. Essentially, he has not been a regular starter in four years. Houston is working him back slowly. Two of his starts were good, but short. In those starts, he combined for 7.2 innings, surrendered no earned runs, and 7 hits.

The middle start was awful as the Reds bashed him for 7 earned runs in 0.1 inning. He walked 3 and gave up a 3-run homer to Elly De La Cruz.

His numbers against the Mariners are largely irrelevant since he hasn’t pitched in so long, and his stuff is likely different from what it was before the injury.

The Astros will continue to stumble unless key bats start producing. Christian Walker is batting below .200 with only 5 homers. Altuve is batting an uncharacteristic .238. Yordan Alvarez is at .210 with only 3 homers. Isaac Paredes has an .861 OPS and 10 homers.

Mariners vs Astros Pick: The Bullpens Will Likely Decide the Game

Since both starters are recovering from injuries, do not expect them to be in the game for very long. The Astros’ pen has been better than the M’s, but the M’s are hitting better. Seattle will take the game outright.