Guardians vs Twins Pick: Cleveland Now Trails Blazing Minnesota (May 19)

• Our Guardians vs Twins pick assesses blazing hot Minnesota as it hosts Cleveland, having just passed them in the AL Central standings
• The Twins are the hottest team in MLB, having just had their 13-game winning streak snapped; they’ve gone from 7 games below .500 to 5 games over
• The Guardians have lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 8
• Logan Allen takes the mound for Cleveland against Minnesota’s towering Bailey Ober

Cleveland Turns to Allen To Break Skid

Two weeks ago, the Guardians were 5.5 games ahead of the Twins in the AL Central standings. Now, after Minnesota won 13 of 14, the Guardians are a half-game behind the Twins.

The Twins’ winning streak is not solely responsible for the turnaround in fortunes. The Guardians have not played well, losing four straight and six of eight. They were just swept 3 straight by their intra-state rivals, the Reds.

For the first game of their suddenly important series against Minnesota, Cleveland turns to Logan Allen. The lefty has been solid in 2025, posting a 3.70 ERA in 8 starts. He has had one objectively bad outing in which he gave up 7 earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Red Sox. In his last start against the Brewers, he threw 6 innings of 3-hit, no-run ball, notching the win.

Against Allen, the Twins’ Willi Castro is 2 for 9. Jonah Bride is 1 for 1. Ty France is 1 for 4. Ryan Jeffers is 2 for 7 with a double. Christian Vazquez is 1 for 3 with a double. And Royce Lewis is 1 for 3.

The Guardians’ lack of hitting has been a big problem. Kyle Mazardo has 10 homers, but is hitting .221. Bo Naylor is at .190. Carlos Santana is at .222. Jose Ramirez is his usual superlative self with an .878 OPS, 9 homers, and 12 stolen bases. Cleveland hits its share of home runs.

Minnesota Tries To Start Another Winning Streak

The Twins had their winning streak snapped by the Brewers in the final game of their weekend series. That streak came within a hair of continuing as Royce Lewis hit what would have been a game-tying home run in the eighth inning, but Brewers’ center fielder Jackson Chourio reached over the wall to snag it and keep Milwaukee in front.

For the first month of the season, the Twins looked like a team on the verge of a major midseason housecleaning with the possibility of a regime change in the front office. It’s funny how a season can turn around. After 13 consecutive wins, they’re in the thick of the playoff race.

Still, they do have concerns.

Byron Buxton is on the 7-day concussion list after a collision with Carlos Correa.

A surprising catalyst for the Twins has been Kody Clemens, whom they purchased from the Phillies. For Minnesota, he has 10 hits in 33 at-bats, 3 homers, and 2 doubles.

Bailey Ober starts for Minnesota. The 6’9″ righty has been one of the Twins’ top starters. He has a 3.93 ERA, but it would be far lower were it not for one bad start in his first outing, giving up 8 earned runs in 2.2 innings against the Cardinals. He has been reaching the seventh inning consistently.

As a team, the Guardians are batting .191 against Ober. Nolan Jones is 1 for 7 with a home run. Ramirez is 7 for 22 with 2 doubles and a home run. Will Brennan is 3 for 5. Steven Kwan is 1 for 15.

Guardians vs Twins Pick: Ober Leads the Twins to Their 14th Win in 15 Games

Bluntly, the Twins are playing brilliantly, and the Guardians are playing very poorly. Everything is going right for Minnesota. Obviously, it is unlikely to continue for the rest of the season, but the combination of the Guardians’ struggles with the Twins’ sudden good fortune gives Minnesota the advantage. Ober is pitching well and will lead the Twins to their 14th win in 15 games.