Dodgers vs Guardians Pick: LA’s Kershaw Tries to Regain His Form (May 28)

• Our Dodgers vs Guardians pick assesses LA’s Clayton Kershaw continuing his comeback in Cleveland
• The Guardians start Slade Cecconi
• LA is hanging onto 1st place in the tough NL West
• Cleveland has fallen well behind the Tigers in the AL Central, battling the Twins and Royals for 2nd place

LA is Working Kershaw Back Slowly

When the definitive history of MLB is written, Clayton Kershaw will play a prominent role. He has three Cy Young Awards, a Most Valuable Player award, finished second in the CYA voting twice, third once, fifth once, and in the top 10 two other times. He’s a 10X All-Star and has won a Gold Glove.

Still, despite those accomplishments, his last few seasons have been a struggle to stay healthy. The Dodgers have mitigated his workload and put him in a position where he can stay as healthy as possible. Despite that, he is undoubtedly a shadow of what he was.

His two starts this season showed just how cautious they are being. He has thrown a total of 6 innings, given up 5 earned runs, and only struck out 3. He will be watched closely against the Guardians, on a pitch count, and be pulled quickly.

The Guardians’ hitters have not done very well against Kershaw, but that was an earlier version of the lefty. Jose Ramirez is 2 for 6 with a home run. Steven Kwan is 1 for 3 with a single. Carlos Santana is 0 for 7.

Freddie Freeman is batting around .360 with an OPS above 1.050 and is already a 2.2 bWAR. Will Smith leads the NL in on-base percentage. Other Dodgers bats have not fared as well. Michael Conforto is batting in the .160s. Max Muncy is batting just over .200 and is not hitting for his customary power. Shohei Ohtani leads the NL in slugging percentage and the majors in home runs and runs.

The Guardians No Longer Control the AL Central

It would be understandable if the Guardians had grown used to the AL Central being theirs to win. Given the past struggles of their division mates, the Twins, Tigers, Royals, and White Sox, they essentially had a pass to the playoffs for several years, regardless of their performance.

Now, the Tigers are among the best teams in baseball, the Twins are the hottest, and the Royals have a lot of young talent. The White Sox are the only remaining punching bag, and even they’re not as bad as they were in 2024, though that would be difficult to achieve.

They have fallen behind the Tigers in the division and are jockeying with the Twins and Royals. For the final game of the Dodgers series, they start Slade Cecconi.

Cecconi has pitched well in two starts for Cleveland. In a total of 11 innings, he’s given up 10 hits, 4 earned runs, walked 2, and struck out 14.

Cecconi began his career with the Diamondbacks, so he has faced the Dodgers before. Freeman is 2 for 3 with 2 home runs. Kikè Hernandez is 1 for 3 with a home run. Smith is 3 for 5 with 3 RBIs. Mookie Betts is 2 for 3 with a double. Teoscar Hernandez is 2 for 4 with 2 singles.

The Guardians’ Carlos Santana got off to a horrific start, but has shown signs of life, and his numbers are coming close to what is expected from the high on-base guy with pop he’s always been. Bo Naylor is still hovering around .200. Ramirez is back to superstar level, hitting home runs, stealing bases, and posting an OPS close to .900.

Dodgers vs Guardians Pick: Cleveland Will Hit Kershaw

The Kershaw situation is unusual in that the Dodgers need to be willing to let him get hit around so he can regain his form by getting his innings in. Cecconi has pitched well so far for the Guardians. Cleveland will get a lead early and hang onto it to get the win.