Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Pick: Arizona’s Burnes Pitching Like an Ace (May 21)

• Our Diamondbacks vs Dodgers pick looks into the 4th-place D-Backs traveling to LA to play the 1st-place Dodgers
• Arizona starts Corbin Burnes, who has pitched like an ace recently; LA responds with Dustin May
• The Dodgers recently made some significant changes to their roster

Burnes Has Not Surrendered a Run in 16 Innings

After a shaky first month, Corbin Burnes has lived up to the expectations that accompany a $210 million contract, particularly from a team with payroll limitations like the D-Backs. His ERA was 5.28 after three starts. Since then, he’s reduced it to 2.56.

Going back three starts, he has thrown 16 straight scoreless innings. In his last two starts against the Dodgers and Rockies, he pitched a combined 13 innings, gave up 7 hits, no earned runs, struck out 15, and walked 5.

Against Burnes, the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani is 4 for 8 with a home run. Mookie Betts is 3 for 12 with a double. Tommy Edman is 7 for 33 with a double and a triple. Teoscar Hernandez is 2 for 8 with a home run.

Arizona’s Corbin Carroll is already a 2.0 bWAR player with an OPS of nearly .950, and an MLB-leading number of triples. Pavin Smith still has an OPS over .920.

The Dodgers’ Starting Pitching is Suddenly a Problem

There’s a perception that the Dodgers will simply figure out how to fill their holes and they’ll be a championship favorite again, like magic. But that is not necessarily the case. They have major problems in their starting rotation with Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki all out with injuries. Clayton Kershaw made his first start of the season on May 17 and was awful, giving up 5 earned runs in 4 innings.

While LA is letting Shohei Ohtani move forward with bullpen sessions for a proposed return to the mound, they haven’t seemed particularly enthusiastic about it. Now, they might need him to pitch.

For the final game of their series against the D-Backs, they start Dustin May. May has been up-and-down in his first year back after Tommy John surgery. He has a 4.43 ERA in 8 starts, surrendering 40 hits in 44.2 innings.

Against May, the Diamondbacks’ Carroll is 3 for 11 with 2 doubles and a triple. Eugenio Suarez is 1 for 3 with a home run. Josh Naylor is 4 for 11 with a double. Pavin Smith is 2 for 3 with 2 singles.

LA recently discarded two longtime roster stalwarts, backup catcher Austin Barnes and infielder/outfielder Chris Taylor. Neither was producing, and both are free agents at the end of the year, so it makes sense.

Their bullpen has been questionable. Freddie Freeman is an MVP candidate, leading the NL in batting and OPS. But Max Muncy and Michael Conforto have been quite bad. Ohtani is leading the NL in slugging percentage and the majors in home runs.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Pick: Arizona Will at Least Stay Within 1 Run

Looking at the pitching matchup, the D-Backs have a notable advantage, but the Dodgers’ key bats have handled Burnes in the past. With that in mind, the D-Backs getting 1.5 runs on the runline is a safer play.