Cubs vs Reds Pick: Cincinnati’s Greene Makes His 1st Start After Injury (May 23)

• Our Cubs vs Reds pick assesses Chicago (30-20, 1st place, NL Central) visiting division rival Cincinnati (25-26, 3rd place)
• Reds’ young ace Hunter Greene takes the hill after missing time with a groin strain
• The Cubs send unsung hero Matthew Boyd to the mound
• Chicago has won 8 of 11; Cincinnati has lost 2 straight after a 5-game winning streak

Reds Get Ace Greene Back After Brief IL Stint

Cincinnati is still trying to find some level of consistency in its first year under veteran manager Terry Francona. They recently won five straight to get over .500, but subsequently lost their next two games to the lowly Pirates.

The Reds’ starting pitching has been a strength, and Hunter Greene, the former second overall pick in the MLB draft, has been at the forefront of that. The righty was an All-Star in 2024 and finished 8th in the NL Cy Young Award voting.

In 2025, he has a 1.9 bWAR and a 2.36 ERA. He has thrown 45.2 innings, struck out 61, allowed 29 hits, and 12 earned runs. In six of his eight starts, he has allowed two runs or fewer.

When facing Greene, the Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki is 6 for 13 with a double, a triple, and 2 home runs. Justin Turner is 3 for 8 with a double. Ian Happ is 2 for 13 with a double and a home run. Nico Hoerner is 3 for 15 with a double and a home run.

The Reds’ offense has been the primary reason for their inconsistency as a team.

The good? Jose Treviño (.835 OPS), Gavin Lux (.786 OPS, but only 1 home run), TJ Friedl (.750 OPS with 3 homers and 8 stolen bases), and Elly De La Cruz (.721 OPS, 8 homers, 16 stolen bases).

Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Jake Fraley, and Jeimer Candelario have not been good.

Boyd Has Quietly Been the Cubs’ 2nd Best Starter

Although he has a high career ERA of 4.75, Matthew Boyd has long been generally reliable when healthy. For the 2025 Cubs, the 34-year-old lefty has amassed a 1.1 bWAR. In nine starts, he has thrown 51.1 innings, given up 50 hits, and 17 earned runs. He’s struck out 53 and walked 13. He has logged at least five innings in every start this season.

Against Boyd, the Reds’ Tyler Stephenson is 2 for 3 with 2 singles. Treviño is 2 for 4. Austin Hays is 1 for 3 with a single. No other Reds batter has a hit against Boyd.

Chicago’s Pete Crow-Armstrong continues tearing it up with an .866 OPS, 12 homers, and 14 stolen bases. He’s also a brilliant defensive center fielder.

Kyle Tucker has slowed down after his world-beating start, but still has a .939 OPS with 12 homers and 14 stolen bases. Seiya Suzuki is leading the NL in RBIs, has 12 homers, and 11 doubles.

Chicago will need to beef up their bullpen as Ryan Pressly, Porter Hodge, and Julian Merryweather have struggled.

Cubs vs Reds Pick: Cincinnati Will Keep the Game Close

Greene might be limited to a pitch count after missing a start with the groin injury. The Reds’ hitting, as mentioned earlier, is inconsistent. With Boyd having been so reliable, the odds of winning favor the hard-hitting Cubs. But the Reds are getting 1.5 runs on the run line. That is the wisest avenue.