Cubs vs Brewers MLB Pick: NL Central Showdown in Milwaukee

A pivotal National League Central rivalry heats up on Monday, July 28, 2025, as the Chicago Cubs travel to American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to face the division-leading Brewers. First pitch is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET in what promises to be a crucial series opener with both teams currently tied atop the division standings.

Chicago Cubs Outlook

The Chicago Cubs currently share the top spot in the NL Central with a 61-43 record. Their offense has been formidable, ranking second in MLB in runs scored (548 total) and second in hits (918). They also boast the third-most home runs in the league with 155.

Key offensive leaders include Pete Crow-Armstrong (27 HR, 74 RBI), Seiya Suzuki (81 RBI, 26 HR), and Nico Hoerner, who leads the team with a .286 batting average. The Cubs’ pitching staff holds a 3.89 ERA (15th in MLB) with a solid 7.5 K/9 rate. They come into this game with a 6-4 record in their last 10 outings.

Milwaukee Brewers Outlook

The Milwaukee Brewers are also 61-43, tied with the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. The Brewers’ strength lies in their pitching, which boasts a remarkable 3.59 ERA (4th in MLB) and ranks 8th in strikeouts per nine innings.

Offensively, they are 8th in runs scored (494 total) but rank 24th in home runs (98), indicating a more balanced, small-ball approach. Jackson Chourio leads the team with 66 RBIs, while Christian Yelich has a team-high 19 home runs and also 66 RBIs. Sal Frelick leads the club with a .293 batting average. The Brewers have been in good form, with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games.

Analysis and Pick

This is a classic divisional clash where every game carries extra weight. The pitching matchup is intriguing: Matthew Boyd has been a true ace for the Cubs, consistently stifling opponents, while Jacob Misiorowski is a rising star for the Brewers who has impressed in his limited big-league action.

While both teams are evenly matched in the standings, the Brewers’ strong pitching at home, combined with the pressure of a divisional lead on the line, could lead to a tighter, lower-scoring affair. The total runs line of 7.5 feels like a fair target given the strength of both starting pitchers and the Brewers’ overall defensive capabilities.