Braves vs Pirates Pick: Bucs Move Forward With a New Manager (May 10)

• Our Braves vs Pirates pick looks at Atlanta (18-20) trying to reach and get beyond .500 playing Pittsburgh (13-26), working under new manager Don Kelly
• Atlanta has crawled out of last place and jumped ahead of the Nationals, but still trails the Phillies and Mets in the NL East
• Pittsburgh is a disaster that the front office somehow sees as former manager Derek Shelton’s fault
• The Braves send AJ Smith-Shawver to the hill; the Bucs respond with Andrew Heaney

Braves Starting Pitching Is Finding Its Form

A main reason the Braves got off to such a terrible start was their starting pitching. Now, they are performing up to expectations and are back on a winning track.

Against the Pirates, they send young AJ Smith-Shawver to the mound. The 22-year-old righty has a 3.00 ERA in 5 starts. His last outing at home against the Reds was superlative. He threw 8 shutout innings, allowed 1 hit, walked 4, and struck out 5.

Smith-Shawver has never faced anyone on the Pirates.

The Braves are still scuffling at the plate. They have veterans hitting for pop and little else. Sean Murphy and Mat Olson are hitting in the .220s. Austin Riley has an OPS above .800, but is leading MLB in strikeouts. Alex Verdugo was a revelation for a week or so, but has reverted to the same unproductive player who couldn’t find a job until the desperate Braves signed him late in spring training.

Don Kelly Can’t Do Much Worse Than Derek Shelton(?)

If Ben Cherington took over as Pirates GM with a five-year plan, he needs to adjust the timeline. He’s been on the job five years, and they’re in worse shape now than they were when he took over. In recent days, with the team sitting at 12-26, he fired manager Derek Shelton and replaced him with Don Kelly.

As a player, Kelly was a Jim Leyland favorite and is a good managerial prospect, but with the team in the state it’s in, how much of an improvement can he be?

In the second game of their series against the Braves, veteran Andrew Heaney gets the start.

Heaney has a 3.18 ERA in 7 starts this season. He has thrown 39.2 innings and given up 31 hits, surrendering 14 earned runs. If nothing else, he will be an attractive trade target at midseason.

He got knocked around in his last start against the Padres, giving up 4 runs and 8 hits in 3.2 innings. Heaney has held the Braves in check and never surrendered a home run against them. Olson is 5 for 17 with a double. Verdugo is 2 for 11.

Pittsburgh’s offense is the main culprit in their atrocious season. Only Oneil Cruz has been productive with an .850 OPS. He leads the majors in stolen bases and is hitting for power. Given the state of the organization, the Pirates might want to find ways to improve and do it quickly because neither Cruz nor ace starter Paul Skenes will want to stay for the long term.

Braves vs Pirates Pick: Atlanta Wins Behind Smith-Shawver

The Pirates won Kelly’s first game as manager, but their lingering issues remain. Smith-Shawver has been one of the Braves’ best starters this season. The Pirates’ Heaney has pitched well in his own right, but Atlanta will take this one as Smith-Shawver holds the Bucs down.