Blue Jays vs Guardians Pick: Scherzer Returns for Toronto (Jun 25)

• Our Blue Jays vs Guardians pick assesses whether 3X Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer can return from a nearly 3-month MLB layoff and pitch effectively shortly before turning 41
• The Guardians send Gavin Williams to the mound
• The Yankees’ swoon has brought the Jays within striking distance of the AL East lead
• Cleveland is fading in the AL Central, but still has a shot at a Wild Card spot

Can Scherzer Boost the Jays’ Rotation?

Max Scherzer left his first start of the season on March 29 after 3 innings. He’d allowed 3 hits and 2 earned runs and accrued only 1 strikeout before a lat issue that he attributed to a lingering thumb problem forced him out. He made two rehab appearances for Toronto’s Triple-A affiliate in Buffalo, tossing 8.2 innings, allowing 5 hits and 2 runs, walking 2 and striking out 12.

The three-time Cy Young Award winner is effective when he’s healthy, but he has not stayed healthy for an extended period in two years.

Until he takes the mound in Cleveland, there’s no way to know how much his stuff has been compromised, so his stats against the Guardians’ hitters are largely irrelevant, though he had dominated Carlos Santana to the tune of 4 for 52 with 2 doubles and 7 walks. Jose Ramirez is 1 for 8 with a double.

If the Jays want to be a serious threat to the Yankees or anyone else in the AL, they need to start hitting. Anthony Santander went on the injured list at the end of May and had a .577 OPS. Former Guardians Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw have been nonexistent offensively. Overall, the club is not hitting with enough power. That includes star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette.

The bullpen will play a key role in this game as Scherzer will undoubtedly be on a pitch count, limiting him to 4-5 innings at most.

Cleveland Sends Williams To Face Jays

The Guardians were a season-high eight games over .500 on May 13. Since then, the Tigers have gone on a tear, and Cleveland has played mediocre baseball. The Guardians are in Wild Card contention, but they need to get back to playing as they did early in the season if they want to legitimately contend.

Against the Jays, they send Gavin Williams to the hill. The 6’6″ Williams has solid overall numbers with a 1.0 bWAR in 15 starts. He has a 3.58 ERA, has thrown 75.1 innings, allowed 65 hits, and 30 earned runs. His walk rate is troublesome, with 42 walks in those 75.1 innings. He’s struck out 78.

Against the Giants in his last start, he allowed 2 hits and no runs in 6 innings, walking 3 and K’ing 6.

For the Blue Jays against Williams, Bichette is 1 for 2 with a home run. Guerrero is 2 for 6 with a double. George Springer is 2 for 6 with a double.

Cleveland has its offensive woes as well. Bo Naylor has pop, but his OPS is well below .700. Santana has dragged his OPS up after a terrible start, but it too is below .700. Ramirez remains one of the best players in baseball who doesn’t get the attention he warrants with an OPS above .900, a high success rate for stolen bases, and a 3.1 bWAR.

Blue Jays vs Guardians Pick: Scherzer Is Too Big a Question Mark

It’s somewhat amazing to wonder what the Blue Jays can reasonably expect from a future Hall of Famer like Max Scherzer. But he has not been on a big league mound in nearly three months, and his body has been betraying him for several years now. Even if he’s effective, he won’t be in the game that long.

Expect the Guardians to get another solid performance from Williams and take the game from the Jays, Scherzer, and their bullpen.