Super Bowl LX MVP: Darnold, Maye, and Other Contenders, Odds and Pick

• As the Super Bowl approaches, a common debate is who will win the coveted Super Bowl LX MVP
• The NFL is star-driven, and with that, the overwhelming majority of past Super Bowl MVPs have been offensive stars
• Breaking past Super Bowl MVPs down, there have been 34 quarterbacks, 9 wide receivers, and 7 running backs
• That’s 50 of the 59 games
• Oddsmakers have done the obvious thing with QBs Sam Darnold and Drake Maye being 1 and 2 in having the best odds to win it
• Who is the best bet? Who might be an under-the-radar option?

Super Bowl LX MVP Odds

The Quarterbacks

In almost every Super Bowl, the quarterbacks have been the primary focus. They are involved in every offensive play.

It makes perfect sense given that it’s the glamour position and nearly every team has relied on QB play to make it this far. There are, of course, occasional anomalies such as the Buccaneers’ Brad Johnson, the Ravens’ Trent Dilfer, the Giants’ Jeff Hostetler, and the Eagles’ Nick Foles, all of whom won Super Bowls and, in Foles’ case, won the Super Bowl MVP.

None of these QBs was the linchpin to their teams’ success. But, since these are four off-the-top-of-the-head examples, they’re a rarity in context.

When it’s up for debate or another, lesser-known player might deserve it, it’s wise to tilt toward the QB.

Next come the running backs and receivers.

With that in mind, here are the cases for the QBs to win the Super Bowl LX MVP:

Sam Darnold, QB – Seahawks

Darnold would add to an already great narrative if he wins the Super Bowl LX MVP.

An objective journeyman, Darnold is with his fifth franchise in eight seasons. The Jets discarded him in favor of Zach Wilson.

The Panthers dumped Darnold as well as Baker Mayfield.

He spent a year with the 49ers as Brock Purdy’s backup and working with QB guru Kyle Shanahan.

Then he went to the Vikings and was thrust into the starting job after J.J. McCarthy injured his knee in training camp and was lost for the season. Darnold came into his own in Minnesota, making the Pro Bowl, throwing 35 TD passes, and leading the team to a 14-3 record.

Finally, he got a long-term commitment from the Seahawks and rewarded them immediately.

On the negative side for his candidacy, he has been more of a very good game manager than a Josh Allen-style centerpiece to the offense. He’s a gambler and throws more than a few interceptions.

That said, if the NFC Championship Game between the Rams and Seahawks had been the Super Bowl with the QB matchup Darnold vs Matthew Stafford, Darnold would have been MVP.

Drake Maye, QB – Patriots

Maye is a better option than Darnold largely because Seattle has arguably the best receiver in the league in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Running back Kenneth Walker III has had a star turn, particularly since he’s taken on a heavier load in the playoffs after his backfield partner Zach Charbonnet suffered a season-ending knee injury.

The Pats’ QB will forever be a marquee position after Tom Brady won 6 Super Bowls and 4 Super Bowl MVPs with New England. The Pats do not have huge names on offense. They are a sum of the parts team. Their biggest offensive star after Maye is probably Stefon Diggs.

Diggs will almost certainly not win the Super Bowl MVP.

Maye doesn’t take the number of risks Darnold does. And he’s more of a scrambler, so he’ll draw more attention for the good and will be protected from the bad in ways Darnold is not.

Barring a Ben Roethlisberger, Super Bowl XL-type performance (ironically in the Steelers’ win over the Seahawks) in which Big Ben completed 9 of 21 passes and threw 2 picks, if the Pats win the Super Bowl, Maye will be the MVP.

The Ball in Hand Principle

After the quarterback, the star wide receivers and running backs have the ball in their hands more often than anyone. With that, there are more opportunities to make the big, memorable, winning play to get the MVP when the QB does not warrant it.

In the aforementioned Roethlisberger disaster, which the Steelers managed to win, wide receiver Hines Ward was the MVP. Julian Edelman won the award in the slog of Super Bowl LIII when Brady was uncharacteristically shaky, and the Pats won the painful-to-watch wrestling match over the Rams. Seahawks elder statesman Cooper Kupp won the Super Bowl LVI MVP in the Rams’ win over the Bengals.

Here are the “ball in hand” candidates:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR/Kenneth Walker III, RB – Seahawks

Smith-Njigba burst into superstardom this season. He was a first-time All-Pro and led the league in receiving yards with 1,793. He caught 119 balls and scored 10 TDs. The relatively low number of TDs is more of a function of how the Seahawks’ offense focused on the rushing attack when in the red zone and did not rely on end zone shots as much as other teams might.

Smith-Njigba is such a weapon that he, along with Walker, will be the likely “we have to stop these guys” target of Pats coach Mike Vrabel’s defensive game plan.

They’re going to dare Darnold to beat them without his two critical offensive pieces.

This, more than anything else, will prevent Smith-Njigba from winning the award even if the Seahawks win the game.

New England might blanket Smith-Njigba to the degree where he catches 5 or fewer balls and for limited yardage. Walker will get the ball as the Seahawks try to establish the run and open up downfield for Darnold.

Walker scored 4 TDs in the two playoff games on the road to the Super Bowl, wins over the 49ers and Rams. With Charbonnet out, he’s the horse out of the backfield. And he’ll be a target for the Pats. If he busts a long run and scores a couple of TDs, he’s a good bet to win the award.

The Special Teams Moment

It’s only happened once, but a kick returner can win the Super Bowl MVP.

Desmond Howard was selected by the Redskins with the 4th overall pick in the 1992 NFL Draft after a stellar, Heisman Trophy-winning career at the University of Michigan. He was miscast as a wide receiver, but he was magical as a kick and punt returner.

After bouncing from Washington to the Jaguars and then the Packers, he became their secret weapon, leading the NFL in punt return yards, returning 3 for TDs. That was a team that had Brett Favre at QB. But in Super Bowl XXXI against…the Pats…Green Bay’s victory was sealed when Howard ran a kickoff back 99 yards for a TD. The return came right after New England had scored a TD to cut a 27-14 deficit to 27-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Neither team scored after that. Green Bay won its first title since the Vince Lombardi days.

Howard was named MVP.

Rashid Shaheed, WR/KR/PR – Seahawks

In this game, the Seahawks have Rashid Shaheed running back kickoffs and punts. Shaheed was acquired from the Saints at the trade deadline in a masterful maneuver by GM John Schneider. In 9 games with Seattle, he ran back 1 kickoff and 1 punt for TDs.

In the Divisional Round against the 49ers, he ran back the opening kickoff 95 yards for a TD, setting the tone for Seattle’s 41-6 blowout.

In the NFC Championship, Sean McVay had his kicking and punt teams avoid kicking the ball to him.

If he runs back a kick (or two), he’s an under-the-radar possibility to win the Super Bowl LX MVP.

Super Bowl LX MVP Pick

This hinges on which team you think is going to win and who the likeliest Super Bowl LX MVP will be if the team you think will win does win.

Based on that, the pick here is Patriots QB Drake Maye.