Southwest Stakes Picks — Betting Preview and Predictions (Jan 31)

A big field of runners is set to take their chance on the Road to the Kentucky Derby on Jan 31, with 14 entries for this year’s G3 Southwest Stakes. A lot could be learned about some of the major contenders for Derby success, and you can find the odds and our Southwest Stakes picks here.

Odds

Southwest Stakes Recent Winners

Southwest Stakes: Event Information

Race Preview

The G3 Southwest Stakes has been a notable prep for producing Triple Crown contenders, with Mystik Dan winning this race at Oaklawn Park on his way to winning the Kentucky Derby in 2024.

Bob Baffert has a strong hand of runners this weekend, which includes the top two in the betting. Litmus Test holds very obvious claims, winning two of his five career starts. Ran to great credit when fourth in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, before impressively registering an Equibase speed figure of 101 when winning the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity.

Buetane has been rerouted by connections, preferring this challenge at Oaklawn Park over the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. The three-year-old won a maiden at Del Mar, but was subsequently a runner-up in both the G1 Hopeful and G2 San Vicente Stakes. No major excuses in the latter when beaten two lengths by So Happy, and is opposable this weekend.

Steven Asmussen sends a very interesting contender to Oaklawn this weekend, with Soldier N Diplomat. He has won twice from four career starts, and was third in the G2 Jockey Club in November. Has a bit to find on ratings with the top two in the betting.

D’code could be the one that has the best chance on these terms, getting weight from his market rivals. The Ray Ashford Jr runner was a staggeringly impressive winner on debut at the end of 2025, producing an Equibase rating of 107. We will learn more about him this weekend when up in grade.

Rancho Santa Fe may bounce back this week. The Brad Cox runner was excellent when winning on two starts last year, but he was very disappointing when only fifth in the Smarty Jones Stakes on his return. May have needed that run, and that is reflected in his price.

Southwest Stakes Picks

Litmus Test could be the major Derby contender to take from this race if he is able to win. However, at the odds, I’d be more prepared to take a chance on Strategic Risk for Mark Casse.

The three-year-old was very impressive when swatting aside Rancho Santa Fe in the Smarty Jones Stakes, achieving a career-best Equibase rating of 90 in the process.

Has progressed with every start under rules, and looks stronger and more powerful as a three-year-old than he did when coming up short in Grade Three company as a juvenile.