NFL Draft 2026: Arch Manning To Sit It Out?

• University of Texas quarterback Arch Manning, a top prospect to be the #1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, might stay in school
• Manning family patriarch Archie Manning stated that’s what he expects to happen
• This news roiled the NFL Draft markets, and the odds for the 2026 draft have been pulled for the moment
• Is this set in stone? What does it mean?

Arch Manning is the 2025 Heisman Trophy Favorite

Archie Manning Calls the Shots For the Manning Family

As patriarch of the Manning family, Archie Manning calls the shots. This is true even though Peyton Manning and Eli Manning are retired from the NFL.

Arch’s father, Cooper, still honors his father.

Therefore, it should not be taken as an uninformed opinion when Archie says that his grandson and namesake, Arch, will not enter the 2026 NFL Draft.

Of course, Arch is an adult and can do what he wants. But given the Mannings’ history and how Archie has made sure to protect his sons, it’s safe to say that Arch is not just talking randomly with what he “hopes” or “suspects.”

What is Past is Prologue

Archie Manning was about as heralded a QB prospect as Peyton, Eli, and Arch. Taken second overall out of Ole Miss in the 1971 Draft by the Saints behind Stanford QB and Heisman Trophy winner Jim Plunkett, he was viewed as the savior in New Orleans.

The Saints had come into existence in 1967 and accrued a record of 14-40-2, with their franchise highlight being Tom Dempsey’s then-record 63-yard game-winning field goal.

Archie spent 11 years as the Saints’ starting QB. The team had a record of 35-91-3 during that time. Their best season record was 8-8.

He was a talented player in a terrible, dysfunctional situation with eight different head coaches. He bounced to the Oilers and then the Vikings.

As a final indignity that summed up his career, former Raiders team doctor Rob Huzienga wrote in his book You’re OK, it’s Just a Bruise that in 1984, the Bears’ 46 defense under Buddy Ryan knocked then-Viking Archie out of the game and his “bleeding hadn’t stopped for an hour.”

He was not going to let that happen to his sons, period.

Peyton and Eli Stayed In School

After the 1997 season at Tennessee, Peyton Manning was already the projected #1 pick in the draft…if he came out as a junior. Had he done so, he would have been playing for the New York Jets and Bill Parcells.

But he didn’t. He stayed at Tennessee for one more year and ended up in Indianapolis.

Eli Manning had a shaky season as a junior at Ole Miss in 2002, so leaving probably wasn’t on the table anyway. But Archie protected his second projected #1 pick at QB in a different way.

After Eli’s senior season, the Chargers had the first overall pick, but general manager A.J. Smith was known to be difficult and he and head coach Marty Schottenheimer were not even speaking. It was not a great situation and Eli made clear he did not want to go to San Diego. They drafted him anyway, but a trade was orchestrated where the Giants would pick the Chargers’ alternative QB, Philip Rivers, and would trade him to San Diego with the Giants’ first-rounder in 2005 for Eli.

If Archie decides how things are going to go, that’s how they go.

Howeverrrrrr……

What Could Change That?

The 2004 playbook would not work today. If Eli was coming out in the exact same situation and said he wasn’t going to play for San Diego or whoever had the first pick, they would tell him, “Yeah, whatever,” and draft him anyway. Then they’d say he should sit out if he didn’t want to play. Good luck with that.

Since Arch is a junior and would not need to declare he was entering the 2026 NFL Draft until January 15, he and the Mannings will know who will be picking number one.

The team picking first will be a bad team. But there are different levels of bad and degrees of competence. If, for example, the Browns have the first overall pick, Arch is not going to Cleveland.

But what if it’s the Giants? With Eli’s connection to the franchise and even the possibility that if they’re so bad that they get the first pick that Eli is given a power position within the organization, would that change the calculus?

How about the Saints? They might get the number one pick. Archie is a legend there despite the endless losing. Arch’s father and uncles grew up and went to high school there. Arch himself was born and went to high school there.

Just because the Boss of the Manning Family made this strong suggestion about his grandson does not mean that it’s final. Circumstances could change. Once the dust settles and the NFL Draft odds are available again, it might still be beneficial to roll the dice on Arch Manning being taken #1 overall.

But if not, there’s always the Heisman!