Last updated Jan 25, 1:42pm ET

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers are hiring veteran former Super Bowl winner Mike McCarthy as their new head coach
  • Pittsburgh, one of the NFL‘s marquee franchises, dramatically changes its historic template in hiring head coaches
  • The move clearly suggests where the Steelers are headed in the near future
  • McCarthy is a good and successful coach, but this could go either way

McCarthy Was the Safe Pick

The names listed by oddsmakers included Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula, Rams pass game coordinator Nate Scheelhaase, McCarthy, recently fired Bills coach Sean McDermott, former Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver, and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores.

Shula was viewed as the favorite. Scheelhaase gained fast after what was reportedly a lights-out interview.

In the end, they opted for the known quantity in McCarthy. This is the safe pick. But is it the right pick?

The Steelers Were Not Ready for a Coaching Search

Jason Whitlock put it succinctly on X with how the Steelers ended up with McCarthy:

Stability is generally a positive thing, but it can also lead to complacency. If a coach has been in place as long as Tomlin and had the level of success he had, making it unlikely that the organization will consider replacing him, they do not have a serious “just in case” list of potential replacements.

That left them scrambling for a new head coach.

When Chuck Noll stepped down, they obviously knew his long and successful run was coming to a close. The top candidates had Pittsburgh ties: Steelers Hall of Famer and legend “Mean” Joe Greene, and Steel City-bred defensive coordinators Dave Wannstedt of the Cowboys and Bill Cowher of the Chiefs.

They chose Cowher. The results speak for themselves. He won a Super Bowl, went to another, and is in the Hall of Fame.

Cowher was clearly reaching the end in 2006. After an 8-8 season, it was time for both sides to move on. Veteran offensive line coach and Hall of Fame offensive lineman Russ Grimm was the odds-on favorite to get the job. But they opted instead for Vikings defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin. He was in his 30s, as Cowher and Noll were.

All came from the defensive side of the ball. None had head coaching experience. All were inspired choices in part because of the organization’s stability and in part because they were up to the task.

There’s no doubt that McCarthy is up to the task. He’s a proven NFL coach. But there are other factors in play when the organization deviates so drastically from what it’s done successfully for almost six decades.

The Steelers’ ownership does not want to acknowledge certain realities that, in 2026, could be acknowledged for them against their will.

McCarthy…and Aaron Rodgers

Coaches who walk in for an interview with confidence and a plan will speak truth to power. That was true with Ben Johnson a year ago, and it’s true with coaches in demand now. Shula, Scheelhaase, and especially Flores presumably gave blunt assessments as to what the Steelers needed to do going forward.

That includes:

  • Moving on from Aaron Rodgers
  • Making tough decisions on star veterans and Steelers icons T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward
  • Finding a long-term solution at quarterback
  • Perhaps accepting that they’ll need to get knocked around for a year or two to get back to their customary Super Bowl contention

Art Rooney II did not want to hear that.

McCarthy coached Rodgers for 13 years. He was on the sideline for Rodgers’ lone Super Bowl win with the Packers. Presumably, McCarthy is an agreeable choice for the notoriously noncommittal QB. Rodgers has yet to definitively say whether he’s going to play another year.

Put it this way: There’s a far higher probability that Rodgers will return to play for McCarthy than an unknown who’s five or more years younger than him.

Of all the coaches, McCarthy is the one whose chances to nab another head coaching gig are dwindling. He’s 62. The Cowboys fired him after the 2024 season, probably undeservedly. He’s a conciliatory choice. He does not check all the boxes when teams look for a new head coach in the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan/Mike Vrabel model. It’s not fair, but it’s how it is.

In short, this was as seamless a change as possible from Tomlin, given the circumstances.

McCarthy is the likeliest to say he can win with what they have and a few tweaks here and there.

The Problem With This…

Now that the Steelers chose McCarthy, there’s a real chance that Scheelhaase will end up in their division with the Browns. It would be ironic for a candidate who looked ideal for the Steelers to go to their rivals in Cleveland and succeed.

But that’s secondary to the realities the Steelers are confronted with, perhaps a significant part of why Tomlin chose to walk away. If he’d stayed, he knew that this nucleus was past its sell-by date and the coming seasons would not be kind.

He did not want to go out with his first losing season when he could have departed when he did and gone right into a broadcast booth with untold millions being thrown at him a year from now to coach again in large part because of his record of success in Pittsburgh.

McCarthy is a keen offensive mind. His teams make the playoffs. But what is he walking into?

Rodgers’ career is mirroring that of the man he replaced in Green Bay, Brett Favre. It could end the same way Favre’s did, going to the Jets, joining another contending team with the Steelers as Favre did the Vikings, staying a year too long, taking a brutal beating, and needing to limp away.

Can Watt overcome the litany of injuries he’s had?

Can they fix the offensive line sufficiently to protect Rodgers?

Will they find a game-breaking wide receiver who won’t keep dropping balls or running the wrong routes, leaving Rodgers with his patented “What are you doing, idiot?” face and hand gesticulations?

Can they find some hard-hitting ballhawks for the defensive backfield?

Then there’s the 2026 schedule. In addition to the AFC North opponents, the Ravens, Browns, and Bengals, they play the NFC South, the AFC South, the Broncos, and the Eagles.

That is a difficult schedule.

As currently constituted, their best-case scenario if everything goes right is 9-8.

Possible win totals will be coming up soon. Taking the Steelers under 8 wins is probably the best option right now, whether they admit it to themselves or not.

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Paul Lebowitz
Paul Lebowitz

Writer, Columnist

Paul is an experienced sportswriter and novelist from NYC with expertise in sports analysis and betting. His work has appeared on platforms like ESPN and YES Network, delivering engaging and objective insights to a diverse audience.

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