NFL: Can John Harbaugh Bring the Giants to 9 Wins in 2026?

• With John Harbaugh agreeing to terms with the Giants, how many wins in 2026 can they expect?
• The NFL will not release its schedule until mid-May, but we know the Giants’ opponents
• Oddsmakers already posted over/under odds for the Giants’ win total in 2026

Over/Under for Giants Wins in 2026

The Harbaugh-Giants Contract Was Delayed, but Not Denied

After the news broke that John Harbaugh and the Giants had agreed that he would become the team’s new head coach, there were a few days where their fans were justifiably petrified that it could come apart due to contractual fine print and levels of authority between Harbaugh and retained GM Joe Schoen.

It wasn’t about money and it wasn’t about perks. It was about who Harbaugh would answer to in the Giants hierarchy.

In the past, the Giants’ GM oversaw the roster and the head coach coached the team. That’s how it was with George Young and Bill Parcells/ Dan Reeves. It was the same with Ernie Accorsi/Jerry Reese and Tom Coughlin. And it’s how it was with Dave Gettleman/Joe Schoen and the uninspiring and forgettable array of head coaches the Giants hired and fired since discarding Coughlin.

After a few fraught days, the issue was settled as expected: Harbaugh reports directly to owner John Mara with Schoen reporting to Mara separately.

In short, Harbaugh is the football boss.

This was a concession the Giants needed to make to get the deal done. And they did.

They’ll Be Better, but How Much Better?

It wouldn’t be difficult for the Giants to be better than the 4-13 mess they were on and off the field in 2025. However, can they get to 9 wins in 2026 based solely on a new head coach, his discipline, his methods, his history, and his newfound power within the organization? Is it possible?

The precise schedule will not be known for months, but based on the NFL’s rules, we know who they’ll play. They will play their NFC East brethren twice each. That means the Cowboys, Eagles, and Commanders. That’s 6 games.

They will also face the NFC West (49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Rams), and they face the Browns, Jaguars, Saints, Titans, Lions, Texans, and Colts.

It’s not an easy schedule based on those teams’ records and performance in 2025. However, had the Giants been able to preserve two or three of the five games in which they led by at least 10 points in the 4th quarter and eventually lost, their record would have been far more respectable.

In retrospect, it’s probably better that things happened the way they did. They could freely move on from overmatched head coach Brian Daboll by firing him in-season and hiring the unexpectedly available Harbaugh after the season.

It’s not unusual for teams to experience a dramatic turnaround based solely on getting a new coach. The Jets were 1-15 in 1996 under Rich Kotite. With few changes for 1997 apart from hiring Bill Parcells, the Jets jumped to 9-7, barely missing the playoffs.

By nearly all accounts, the 1996 Jets were not a prototypical 1-15 team and that showed in 1997.

In that same vein, the Giants were bad, but not 4-13 bad. Injuries to key players Malik Nabors and Cam Skattebo contributed to the horrific record. In 2026, they will get Nabors back by the start of the season. Skattebo is less certain, but should be back at some point during the season.

Reasons To Be Positive

QB Jaxson Dart will have full OTAs and a training camp as the presumptive starter, so he’ll be ready to hit the ground running. The Giants pick 5th overall in the upcoming NFL Draft. Their 2025 1st round pick, Abdul Carter, whose behavior and effort were questionable in his rookie season, will either fall in line or he won’t play. Harbaugh will certainly tell Carter what’s expected and import veterans to keep the young player in line.

For most of the past decade, the Giants needed to overpay free agents to sign with them. This is a byproduct of the perception of disarray and winning five games a year with one coach after another on an assembly line of inexperienced ineptitude.

With Harbaugh, they will know what to expect. It’s safe to say they will eventually be a contender with him in charge. The one thing that cannot be discounted is competence and a record of achievement. Harbaugh, with his 180-113 career record in the regular season, 12 playoff seasons in 18 years, and only two seasons below .500, it’s safe to say they’re going to be competitive as soon as 2026.

The question is, how competitive?

Will the Giants Win 9 or More Games Under Harbaugh in 2026?

The Giants’ win total in 2026 will assuredly be higher than it was in 2025. But can Harbaugh get them to 9 wins?

The schedule promises to be tough, but not impossible. In their division, the Cowboys and Commanders are both coming off poor seasons in their own right, probably worse than the Giants, given the expectations they had at the outset. The Eagles are going to undergo significant changes after their Wild Card loss.

The remainder of the schedule is challenging, but the simple matter of solid fundamentals and attention to detail should keep them in many games, particularly since the Giants had 10-point leads in the 4th quarter of multiple games in 2025 and blew them all largely because of poor decisions, penalties, and other preventable missteps.

Given the likelihood of major additions in free agency and the draft, along with the players they already have, they are a good bet to win over 8.5 games in 2026.