Last updated Feb 19, 1:52pm ET

  • Although it is very early in the offseason, there are some NFL 2026 win totals available to predict whether they will go over or under
  • The regular season is just over six months away and teams are taking early steps toward their offseason plan
  • Despite the lack of certainty with schedules, rosters, the draft, and more, there may be value available when projecting how the currently listed teams will perform

Early 2026 Win Totals

TeamOver Wins (Odds)Under Wins (Odds)
Baltimore Ravens10.5 (-140)10.5 (+110)
Buffalo Bills10.5 (-140)10.5 (+110)
Cleveland Browns5.5 (-125)5.5 (-105)
Las Vegas Raiders6 (+100)6 (-130)
Miami Dolphins5.5 (+100)5.5 (-130)
New York Giants8.5 (+120)8.5 (-150)
Pittsburgh Steelers8.5 (+110)8.5 (-140)
Tennessee Titans6.5 (-115)6.5 (-115)

The NFL schedule isn’t set to be released until mid-May or so. Teams have just gotten their coaching staffs and front offices in place. The 2026 NFL Draft is not until the weekend of April 23-25. Free agency has not gotten underway. Veteran players are being cut or having their deals restructured for room under the salary cap.

So it might seem counterintuitive to gauge how many wins teams will accrue in 2026 without much context as to what their rosters will look like. But that gives opportunities to do a pre-assessment with the available information, and speculate on their additions and subtractions.

Despite the schedules not being official, it is known who the teams will play during the course of the season. Every listed team made a coaching change, so there is positivity or questions surrounding how they will fare.

The odds will undoubtedly change in real time based on myriad factors, so if there is a strong feeling one way or the other, it’s important to act fast.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens made a change at head coach from John Harbaugh to Jesse Minter in a move that appeared to be a change for its own sake. Owner Steve Bisciotti implied that he felt it was best for Harbaugh and the organization to part ways.

They will play their AFC North division mates, the Bengals, Browns, and Steelers. The Bengals and Browns will be better in 2026 than they were in 2025. The Ravens also play the NFC South, the AFC South, the NFC West, the Broncos, the Raiders, the Chargers, and two unknown teams from the NFC East and the AFC East.

Lamar Jackson needs a bounce back and they need to hope Derrick Henry doesn’t hit the wall as hard-driving backs tend to with sudden swiftness.

The defense was vulnerable to the rush and the big play downfield. These issues need to be fixed to be any better than they were in 2025.

Pick
Ravens Under 10.5 Wins
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Buffalo Bills

Like the Ravens, the Bills fired their longtime head coach, Sean McDermott. They promoted from within with offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Obviously, this provides continuity and a comfort level for QB Josh Allen.

They need to repair the defense and stop the run. In addition, they must find a true force downfield at wide receiver.

The AFC East promises to be partially atrocious with the Jets being the Jets and the Dolphins clearing the decks of their veterans. The Patriots went to the Super Bowl and surpassed Buffalo, but there’s a chance for a step back given their admittedly weak 2025 schedule and that they won’t sneak up on anyone, particularly the Bills.

Along with their AFC East brethren, the Bills play the AFC West, the NFC North, and the Texans.

As of now, they’ll win at least 11 games.

Pick
Bills Over 10.5 Wins
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50% up to $1000

Cleveland Browns

New head coach Todd Monken made a point of telling Shedeur Sanders that Monken’s former team, the Ravens, wanted to draft him.

Deshaun Watson is going to be ready to play.

They’ll have a decision to make at QB.

Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz left after he was passed over for the head coaching position, adding more intrigue to how they move forward to maintain an excellent defense led by Myles Garrett.

Along with their AFC North division foes, they play the NFC South, the AFC South, the Giants, and the Jets.

It’s a hunch, but the Browns will be much better in 2026 than they were in 2025.

Pick
Browns Over 5.5 Wins
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000

Las Vegas Raiders

Klint Kubiak is coach number…oh, never mind.

They’ve cycled through a lot of coaches in a very short time period.

Kubiak is well-regarded as an offensive mind, has a lineage through his former NFL QB and Super Bowl-winning head coach dad, Gary Kubiak, and Klint has a Super Bowl ring of his own as the former OC of the Seahawks.

They’re almost certainly going to select Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza first overall. The Raiders have a running back in Ashton Jeanty, a tight end Brock Bowers, and need to decide what they’ll do with edge rusher Maxx Crosby.

They play their tough AFC West division mates. In addition, they face the AFC East, the Titans, and the Browns. There are winnable games in there, but getting over 6 wins is a big ask.

Pick
Raiders Under 6 Wins
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000

Miami Dolphins

With new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley, the Dolphins are cleaning house.

It’s unknown whether it’s a full rebuild, perhaps with their eye on Arch Manning in 2027, or they’re rebooting and will use their newly created cap space to craft a roster that fits in with Hafley’s preference for a hard-hitting defense and will live with QB Quinn Ewers and a Kirk Cousins-like veteran.

As for their schedule, they get the AFC East, the AFC West, the NFC Central, the 49ers, and the Colts.

They’re in for a rough go of it in 2026.

Pick
Dolphins Under 5.5 Wins
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000

New York Giants

The 2026 Giants’ win total was discussed in the immediate aftermath of hiring John Harbaugh as head coach.

Team construction aside, Harbaugh brings immediate credibility to an organization that desperately needed it after seeing its well-regarded standing chipped away over the past decade amid ineptitude and repeated missteps.

The NFC East is up in the air as to how good the Commanders and Cowboys will be. They will also play the NFC West, the AFC South, the Lions, and the Browns.

With Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabors, and Harbaugh-instilled discipline on Abdul Carter, the Giants will be much better than they were in 2025. But will they get to 9 wins?

It’s worthwhile to say yes.

Pick
Giants Over 8.5 Wins
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000

Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s not difficult to gauge what the Steelers are doing. They did not have the stomach to do what needs to be done to move toward the future with a young QB and a reshaped roster.

That’s not what owner Art Rooney II wanted to hear as they have grown accustomed to finishing above .500 every year with former head coach Mike Tomlin’s admirable record of never finishing with more losses than wins.

Mike McCarthy is a good coach. His hiring dramatically increases the odds that Aaron Rodgers will come back for another year.

But they’re old. They’re doing things old, declining teams do.

They will play their AFC North rivals, the NFC South, the AFC South, the Patriots, the Eagles, and the Broncos.

That is a rough schedule.

Disaster incoming in Pittsburgh.

Pick
Steelers Under 8.5 Wins
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000

Tennessee Titans

This is Robert Saleh’s second chance as a head coach. If he is the same reticent entity he was with the Jets, he’s sure to fail with the Titans despite having a franchise quarterback, a high draft pick, and money to spend.

Cam Ward can make every throw and it will be up to Brian Daboll to nurture him. Daboll is also a failed head coach in New York, fired after 3 1/2 years running the Giants. He did tutor Josh Allen with the Bills and is a well-regarded offensive mind, just as Saleh is well-regarded defensively.

Oddsmakers expect them to rise from 3-14 to 6+ wins.

They do have a foundational defensive piece in Jeffery Simmons.

Schedule-wise, they are in the AFC South, not an easy division with the Jaguars, Colts, and Texans. Jacksonville and Houston are Super Bowl contenders. They also play the NFC East, the AFC North, the Lions, and the Raiders.

No matter how much they improve, getting to 7 wins is extraordinarily unlikely.

Pick
Titans Under 6.5 Wins
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
Paul Lebowitz
Paul Lebowitz

Writer, Columnist

Paul is an experienced sportswriter and novelist from NYC with expertise in sports analysis and betting. His work has appeared on platforms like ESPN and YES Network, delivering engaging and objective insights to a diverse audience.

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