NFL 2026: Oddsmakers See a Major Jump in Bengals’ Win Total

• The early NFL over/under odds for wins are out and oddsmakers see a major jump in the 2026 Bengals’ win total
• Since going 12-4 in 2022 and losing in the Conference Championship Game, they have epitomized injury-riddled mediocrity
• What could the oddsmakers be thinking and will they go over or under 9.5 wins?

Key Factors as the Bengals Hope to Rebound

The Bengals walk (or hobble; or crawl) into every season with one of the most important factors in having a winning team in their pocket: a star quarterback in Joe Burrow.

Then they add arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, Ja’Marr Chase, who is ably assisted by Tee Higgins, and a solid all-around back in Chase Brown.

Even without Burrow, they can put up the points as they showed when they made a desperate midseason trade to get Joe Flacco and the veteran kept the scoring machine going, helping the Bengals tread water and maintain an outside shot at the playoffs despite losing 8 of their first 11 games.

Their problem was, is, and will seemingly always be, a porous defense.

So what needs to go right for them to rise from 6-11 to at least 10-7, or what could go wrong for them to win 9 games or fewer?

Joe Burrow Stays Healthy

Burrow has six years in the league and has suffered serious injuries in half of them. His career record as a starter is 43-33-1. But those lost games are a persistent problem and they’ve been unable to overcome it.

To call him “injury prone” is unfair. He blew out his knee, had a torn ligament in his right wrist, and suffered severe turf toe. These are circumstantial injuries, and little could have been done to prevent them.

Few teams can withstand losing their superstar QB. The Bengals, run by a frugal owner in Mike Brown, are worse off than free-spending teams because they’re top-heavy in how they pay their players. The roster is not deep enough to cover for losing Burrow.

He must stay healthy.

They Fix a Woeful Defense

In 2025, Cincinnati was 30th in points allowed per game, was next-to-last in total yards allowed per game, and surrendered more than 4,200 yards through the air, which was bad enough to finish 26th in the NFL. As a team, they tallied 35 sacks.

Star edge Trey Hendrickson has long been unhappy about his contract and is now a free agent.

Still, when the Bengals have been backed against the wall, Brown has pried open his wallet, waved away the dust, and spent to keep players they needed to keep. They could simply put the franchise tag on him. He would undoubtedly be unhappy about it, and it could lead to a standoff, but it’s an option with the possibility of a longer-term deal.

The “Could Go Either Way” Schedule Benefits Them

While the full NFL schedule will not be released until May or so, teams’ 2026 opponents are known. Of course, the Bengals will play their AFC North brethren — the Steelers, the Ravens, and the Browns — twice each. They also play the AFC South, the NFC South, the Dolphins, the Commanders, and the Chiefs.

This could be a beneficial schedule, or it could be rough.

The AFC North is in as great a flux as it’s been in many years with both the Ravens and Steelers having new head coaches after long runs from John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin. The Ravens stayed in the “family” by hiring Jesse Minter and seem inclined to stay the course. The Steelers went outside the organization and hired a veteran retread in Mike McCarthy, apparently running it back with an aging team and hoping Aaron Rodgers returns.

If the Browns continue playing superlative defense and they get moderate production from their offense, no matter whether it’s Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, or whoever is under center for them, they’re a darkhorse playoff team.

No NFC South team finished above .500 in 2025. The Dolphins promise to be terrible. The Chiefs are coming off a bad season and hoping for a rebound to normal. And the Commanders are making significant changes after a very bad 2025 follow-up to their 2024 run to the NFC Title Game. The AFC South promises to be a rough go.

If Cincinnati can have, at minimum, a passable defense, and a healthy Burrow, along with the schedule going favorably puts them above water in the over/under for wins.

But since it’s the Bengals, they have little margin for error. And that needs to be accounted for when making a pick for the 2026 Bengals’ win total.