NFL 2025: Washington Commanders Over/Under For Wins

• Our Washington Commanders over/under for wins gauges whether oddsmakers are right in expecting a fallback from their 12 wins in 2024
• The Commanders were one of the NFL‘s biggest surprises, upsetting the NFC’s top-seeded Lions in the Divisional Round before losing to the Super Bowl champion Eagles in the NFC Championship Game
• They added Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil in the offseason to help second-year QB Jayden Daniels, but oddsmakers have them at over/under 9.5 wins

2024 Was a Dream Season for the Commanders

Finally free after two decades of former owner Daniel Snyder’s petty ineptitude, the Commanders got a fresh start under new owner Josh Harris, general manager Adam Peters, and head coach Dan Quinn.

It certainly helped that they had the number two pick in the 2024 draft with Jayden Daniels sitting there for the taking. But the change in attitude with professionalism and competence would have made the season a win had they finished at 9-8 instead of 12-5.

Making it to the NFC Championship Game after beating the top-seeded Lions in the Divisional Round was a stunning indicator of just how far the organization had come.

Washington Imported Proven Star Veterans for 2025

To take the next step, the Commanders traded for 49ers’ disgruntled wide receiver Deebo Samuel. When he’s healthy and motivated, Samuel is a force. Still, he’s four years out from his best season in 2021, when he was an All-Pro with 77 catches for 1,405 yards through the air and accrued 365 yards rushing. He is playing on a one-year contract, meaning he will be motivated to put up big numbers for his new team and subsequently, he hopes, cash in.

They also acquired 5X Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil from the Texans. He will serve a key role protecting Daniels’ blind side. Tunsil will be 31 when the regular season starts. Samuel turned 29 earlier this year. These are aggressive, win-now moves for the Commanders.

While they are dramatic improvements on paper, with Samuel’s presence freeing up fellow receiver Terry McLaurin, there is also the argument that they are trying to run before they prove they can walk; that the 2024 run that ended in a 55-23 loss in Philadelphia was a hiccup rather than a warning sign that they need more upgrades before being a persistent threat to the upper echelon teams.

That loss to the Eagles exposed the Commanders’ defense, showing how vulnerable it was to the big play. Head coach Quinn’s specialty is defense, and they made major changes, parting ways with defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, safety Jeremy Chinn, edge Dante Fowler, and defensive back Benjamin St-Juste.

The rebuilt defense will feature rookie defensive back Trey Amos, second-round draftee out of Ole Miss, cornerback Jonathan Jones, and defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw.

Their Schedule is Reasonably Friendly

As denizens of the NFC East, they will play the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys twice each. Philly is again a Super Bowl contender. New York is not expected to be very good. And the Cowboys? Injuries and drama are as ingrained as the monicker “America’s Team” and the star on their helmets.

They visit the Packers, Falcons, Chargers, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Vikings. As hosts, they welcome the Raiders, Bears, Seahawks, and Broncos. In addition, the Lions visit the D.C. area for a Championship Game rematch in Week 10.

The Bears game carries some intrigue as it was last season’s Daniels Hail Mary that signaled the 20+ years of darkness under Snyder were over, the rookie QB was a dynamic force, and the Commanders might be for real. It also sparked the Bears’ tailspin.

Commanders Over/Under For Wins

While there is a convincing argument to say they will take several steps back from 12 wins to fewer than 9.5 wins, there are just as many questions surrounding many of their opponents.

Daniels is already a superstar whose rise is forcing a recalibration as to whether he or the Bears’ Caleb Williams should have been the first overall pick in the 2024 draft. Samuel will be motivated, and the defense will almost certainly be better.

Even if the Commanders do fall back slightly, they will still win at least 10 games.