NFL 2025: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under For Wins

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ over-under wins projection is 9.5, with oddsmakers leaning toward the under
• In 2024, the Bucs went 10-7 in the regular season, winning the NFC South before losing a nailbiter in the Wild Card to the Commanders
• The Bucs had a relatively muted offseason, focused mostly on improving their defense
• Quarterback Baker Mayfield had his second straight Pro Bowl season and threw for 41 TDs

Tampa Had a Good, but Streaky, 2024 Season

Although the Bucs’ 2024 season was an overall positive with a division title, a Wild Card berth, and a field goal loss to Washington, they endured a midseason four-game losing streak followed immediately by a four-game winning streak.

They handed the Lions one of their two losses on the season, beat the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles relatively easily, took the eventual AFC champion Chiefs to overtime before losing, and blew out the Chargers.

Boosting the Defense Was the Offseason Priority

Many of their losses were due to an unusually leaky defense, particularly a vulnerable secondary. This is a surprise considering head coach Todd Bowles’ reputation for crafting complex schemes to combat the passing game.

Their offseason was dedicated to addressing defensive deficiencies. In the NFL Draft, the team selected cornerbacks Benjamin Morrison from Notre Dame and Jacob Parrish from Kansas State in the second and third rounds, respectively.

They signed veteran linebacker Haason Reddick to a one-year contract. Reddick’s 2024 season was sabotaged in part by his protracted holdout and in part by playing for the Jets. The soon-to-be 31-year-old was a Pro Bowler for the Eagles in consecutive seasons before his trade to New York.

Linebacker Anthony Walker (Dolphins) and cornerback Kindle Vildor (Lions) signed one-year deals.

Mayfield Has Found His Home in Tampa

It’s reasonable to wonder if Browns ownership is questioning the organizational decision to dump Mayfield given that they’re on QB number…many…since Mayfield was discarded to the Panthers for a fifth round draft pick.

In 2024, Mayfield had the best season of his career throwing for 4,500 yards on the dot, 41 TDs, and accruing a 106.8 passer rating. He did lead the league in picks with 16, but that’s going to happen with a gambler like Mayfield. And he’s an old-school football player, which is one of the highest compliments to give.

Offensive coordinator Liam Coen left to take the Jaguars head coaching position, but Mayfield adapted after Dave Canales left for Carolina the year before.

For 2025, the Bucs got Mayfield a potential weapon in the first round by drafting wide receiver Emeka Egbuka out of Ohio State. He caught 81 balls and scored 10 TDs in the Buckeyes’ National Championship season.

Egbuka joins Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otten, and Jalen McMillan to catch the ball. Bucky Irving and Rachaad White return in the backfield.

All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs will miss the beginning of the season after knee surgery.

The Bucs Face a Workable Schedule

In the NFC South, they face the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers twice each. None made the playoffs nor finished above .500 in 2024. At home, they play the Jets, Eagles, 49ers, Patriots, and Cardinals. On the road, they play the Texans, Seahawks, Lions, Bills, Rams, and Dolphins.

Buccaneers Over/Under For Wins

The Bucs have been on the edge in each of the past three seasons finishing 8-9, 9-8, and 10-7. They made the playoffs in all three seasons. It’s understandable to go back and forth as to whether they’ll surpass 9.5 wins in 2025.

The Panthers will undoubtedly be better. The Falcons are still in flux with a second-year QB. The Saints are restarting with a new head coach.

For the Bucs, their improved defense and big play offense should be good enough to get them beyond 9.5 wins and another NFC South title.