NFL 2025: Seattle Seahawks Over/Under For Wins

• The Seattle Seahawks’ over-under wins for 2025 have been set at 7.5
• NFL oddsmakers are confident they will surpass that number with new QB Sam Darnold
• Seattle was 10-7 in 2024 under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald
• They tied with the NFC West champion Rams in the standings, but lost the division on a tiebreaker and missed the playoffs
• After the season, they traded longtime starting QB Geno Smith to the Raiders and signed Darnold to replace him

The Smith Era Ends, the Darnold Era Begins

Geno Smith spent three seasons as the Seahawks’ starter, made the Pro Bowl twice, and led the team to winning records in each. However, he is a key part of the organization’s past. Given that the team moved on from head coach Pete Carroll after the 2023 season, it’s no surprise that his replacement, Mike Macdonald, wants to put his stamp on the offense in his second year at the helm. With that, they moved on from Smith, trading him to the Raiders, where he will reunite with Carroll, and signed Sam Darnold.

There was debate as to whether the Vikings, Darnold’s team last season, would franchise tag him. They did not and will give intended starter in 2024, J.J. McCarthy, every chance to win their starting QB job.

Darnold was in the right place at the right time with Minnesota. He threw for 4,319 yards, 35 TDs, and 12 picks. The Vikings went 14-3 before losing in the Wild Card to the Rams. He signed a three-year, $100.5 million deal.

Other Changes Were Made to the Offense

In addition to signing Darnold, they also moved on from offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, replacing him with Klint Kubiak. Kubiak’s West Coast offense is more suitable for Darnold’s skills than it would be for Smith.

Longtime star receiver D.K. Metcalf was traded to the Steelers. Tyler Lockett was released and signed with the Titans.

Veteran wide receiver Cooper Kupp signed a three-year, $45 million deal.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling signed a one-year deal. In the draft, they took offensive tackle Grey Zabel out of North Dakota State in the first round, and tight end Elijah Arroyo out of Miami in the third.

These additions join running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and tight end Noah Fant on the offensive side of the ball.

Consistency is the Key for Seattle

As spectacular as Smith could sometimes be, he had hot and cold streaks. Darnold needs to be more reliable with ball security than Smith was, and he will be.

The team itself was streaky in 2024. They won their first three games, lost the next three, and went on with the win-one, lose-one template until winning four straight from Week 11 through Week 14 to rise to 8-5. They looked like a playoff team, but lost two straight to the Packers and Vikings, opening the door for the Rams to take the division, which they did.

Seattle’s defense was ranked in the middle of the pack in 2024. Macdonald spent nine years as a defensive assistant for the Ravens, so he’ll want to replicate the aggressive, opportunistic style they favor in Baltimore.

Eleven-year veteran and four-time Pro Bowler DeMarcus Lawrence was signed away from the Cowboys, the only team he’d ever played for in the league. He missed most of the 2024 season with a Lisfranc injury to his right foot.

Several key defenders, including Lawrence, Leondard Williams, Jonathan Hankins, and Jarran Reed, are past 30.

The Seahawks’ Schedule is Favorable

The NFC West was, on paper, one of the weaker divisions in the NFL in 2024. However, the 49ers had an injury-ravaged season that left the division wide open. The Rams barely won it over the Seahawks. It is unlikely to be as weak in 2025.

In addition to the two games each against the 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals, the Seahawks host the Saints, Buccaneers, Texans, Vikings, and Colts. They visit the Steelers, Jaguars, Commanders, Titans, Falcons, and Panthers.

Seahawks Over/Under For Wins

The Seahawks are in a transition period under Macdonald, and that is not always easy. They managed to stay in contention despite extended lulls in 2024, and now they are remaking the offense with a new OC, a new QB, and new receivers.

It will inevitably have its obstacles.

Combining that with their spotty defense, the Seahawks are vulnerable to taking a step back. In addition, the 49ers, Panthers, Titans, and Jaguars are expected to improve significantly from 2024. Seattle will be a disappointment this season and win fewer than 7.5 games.