NFL 2025: San Francisco 49ers Over/Under For Wins

• NFL oddsmakers have the San Francisco 49ers’ over-under wins at 10.5 for 2025
• This bullish assessment implies the belief that the ‘Niners’ 6-11 season in 2024 was an injury-ravaged anomaly and will not happen again
• Quarterback Brock Purdy received the long-term contract he sought
• San Francisco moved on from star receiver Deebo Samuel, trading him to the Commanders
• Robert Saleh returns as defensive coordinator; Klay Kubiak is the first official offensive coordinator for Kyle Shanahan since Mike McDaniel in 2021

The ‘Niners Hope 2024 Was an Unfortunate Blip

In 2024, the 49ers were a preseason Super Bowl favorite. It only made sense following their overtime loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. However, they had a mediocre start and injuries began piling up to key players Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, and Talanoa Hufanga.

Even with their injuries, they were in the thick of the NFC West race at 5-4 after a Week 10 win over the Buccaneers. They then lost seven of their final eight games, finishing at 6-11.

If head coach Kyle Shanahan didn’t have the reputation he has and hadn’t made it to two Super Bowls and two Conference Championship Games, the late-season collapse could have cost him his job, injury excuse or not.

QB Purdy Finally Got His $$$

Brock Purdy went from being Mr. Irrelevant and the last player drafted in the 2002 NFL Draft, to being thrust into the starting QB role, to a Super Bowl appearance, and a contract worthy of a franchise player.

Amid speculation of a protracted holdout, the sides finally agreed on a contract extension. Purdy received a five-year, $265 million deal with $182.55 million guaranteed.

McCaffrey’s Health Is Key

Losing Christian McCaffrey essentially punctured the 49ers’ chances in 2024. He was the linchpin of their offense, and despite Jordan Mason’s solid play in his stead, they were functioning without their home run hitter. Their on-field results reflected his absence.

Mason is gone, traded to the Vikings for a late-round draft pick. McCaffrey is reportedly healthy and ready to go.

Still, it’s important to remember that McCaffrey has endured a hefty workload with San Francisco. During his first few years with the Panthers, he was frequently injured with various strains, sprains, and pulls. He’s entering his ninth year, and although he keeps himself in prime condition, the yards and hits could be adding up.

Shanahan’s system is running back-friendly, so Isaac Guerendo, Patrick Taylor, and rookie fifth-rounder Jordan James, taken out of Oregon, can pick up the slack for short periods. But they’re not McCaffrey.

There will be a heavier load on McCaffrey with the trade of Deebo Samuel to the Commanders. They signed veteran receiver Demarcus Robinson and tight end Luke Farrell to join star tight end George Kittle and receiver Aiyuk. Ricky Pearsall showed star potential as a receiver. And there’s no questioning his toughness after his rapid return from being shot in a robbery attempt.

Mac Jones was signed to back up Purdy.

Defense Was the Focus of the Draft

In the draft, the 49ers’ first five picks were on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive lineman Mykel Williams was taken 11th overall from Georgia. They took defensive tackle Alfred Collins in the second round out of Texas, linebacker Nick Martin from Oklahoma State in the third round, cornerback Upton Stout also in the third round out of Western Kentucky, and defensive tackle CJ West in the fourth round out of Indiana.

They signed cornerback Tre Brown away from the Seahawks, linebacker Luke Gifford away from the Titans, and cornerback Siran Neal away from the Dolphins.

The 49ers Have an Advantageous Schedule

The NFC West will not be as mediocre in 2025 as it was in 2024. The 49ers play two games each against the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals. They visit the Saints, Buccaneers, Texans, Giants, Browns, and Colts. They host the Jaguars, Falcons, Panthers, Titans, and Bears.

49ers Over/Under For Wins

It’s difficult to envision the 49ers being as unlucky with injuries again.

If they have another bad season, there could be substantive changes, starting with the front office and the head coach. Struggles will inevitably add fuel to the idea that, after eight years, this coach and this core have run their course.

But barring a disastrous series of injuries or drastic underachievement, the schedule is weak enough to save them. They will win more than 10.5 games.