NFL 2025: Player Performance Best Bets Over/Under – NFC South

• Next up in our NFL 2025 analysis looks at the NFC South player over-under performance picks
• This is one of the league’s weaker divisions, but it has established players like Baker Mayfield and others with high-end potential, including Michael Penix Jr.
• The Buccaneers are the division favorites, with the Falcons, Panthers, and Saints hoping to improve dramatically

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield has finally found a home in Tampa Bay after bouncing from the Browns (who have four QBs in camp and not one who is the answer to their woes), to the Panthers (who don’t know if they have a quarterback for the long term), and the Rams (whose QB, Matthew Stafford, is 37 and is experiencing back trouble).

He’s made the Pro Bowl and the playoffs in his two years with the Bucs. He threw 28 TD passes in 2023 and 41 TD passes in 2024. Given his performance playing for Tampa, his 2025 over-under total of 28.5 TD passes sounds low.

However, he is working under a new offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard, after their 2024 coordinator, Liam Coen, took the Jaguars head coaching job. In 2023, Dave Canales was the OC and left for the Panthers.

It’s not as if Grizzard is coming from the outside. He was the Bucs’ passing game coordinator in 2024.

The Bucs’ offensive line is in flux, but Mayfield is mobile enough to avoid the rush and be productive. They have depth on offense and added to it with their 1st round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, wide receiver Emeka Egbuka out of Ohio State.

Mayfield will throw at least 29 TD passes.

Atlanta Falcons

Penix took over for Kirk Cousins late in the 2024 season when Cousins was plainly and simply not getting the job done. Worse, his passes lacked the necessary zip. Penix has a strong arm and deft touch on his passes. He was injury-prone in college.

In five appearances last season (three starts), he completed 61 of his 105 passes for 775 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 picks. He’s a pocket passer and does not run much.

The Falcons are committed to him, but Cousins is still on the roster. If Penix struggles, Cousins could relieve him if only for a single game.

Like Mayfield, Penix has plenty of weapons with Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Tyler Allgeier.

But will he get beyond 3,400 yards? He’s still something of a question mark, so the safer projection is that he will not.

Carolina Panthers

Hubbard is one of the more underappreciated backs in the league. In 2024, he ran for 1,195 yards in 15 games, averaged 4.8 yards per carry, and scored 10 touchdowns. At age 26, he’s entering his prime.

The question with his rushing total in 2025 is how head coach Dave Canales splits the carries between Hubbard, former Cowboys back Rico Dowdle, and their 4th round pick out of Georgia, Trevor Etienne.

Despite Bryce Young’s dramatic improvement in the latter stages of the season, they might still want to protect him from being the centerpiece of their offense. That means they will run the ball.

Is 950.5 yards rushing untenable in 17 games, even if the carries are shared between their backs?

Dowdle and Etienne will be major parts of their offense, but Hubbard is the horse, and he’ll rush for more than 950.5 yards.

New Orleans Saints

Kamara is a weapon out of the backfield whether he’s running the ball or catching it. He was always a focal point of the Saints’ offense. Now under new head coach Kellen Moore, the question with Kamara is if he’ll be on the trade block relatively early in the season.

Moore named Spencer Rattler as his starting QB, and the Saints are rebuilding while possibly keeping a close eye on the 2026 NFL Draft order, with the temptation to tank for Arch Manning difficult to resist.

Kamara will be a security blanket for Rattler, but opposing defenses are aware of how critical he is to their offense and will hone in on stopping him.

Considering how bad the Saints likely will be, Kamara will almost assuredly be traded. Until then, his production will be limited, and he’ll finish below 450.5 receiving yards.

NFC South Player Over-Under Picks

These NFC South player over-under picks are based on a weak division, the rosters, and the questions surrounding the teams. There are many “if this, then that” circumstances to consider.

What are your projections for the NFC South over-unders?

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