NFL 2025: Player Performance Best Bets Over/Under – AFC South

• NFL 2025 is coming soon, and our AFC South player over-under projections look at Jonathan Taylor, Azeez Al-Shaair, Trevor Lawrence, and Tony Pollard
• This might be the league’s weakest division, but star players present opportunities
• So which player over-unders are the best bets to consider?

Houston Texans

Al-Shaair’s over-under for total tackles (solo and assisted) is a moderate 120.5. The linebacker is better known for his frequently questionable hits and being under scrutiny by the league. The Lawrence hit cost him three games, and he was lambasted for the viciousness of it.

The questions with Al-Shaair are where he lines up and if he plays 15 to 17 games. The one season in which he was a 17-game starter was in 2023 with the Titans. He amassed 163 combination tackles. Before that, his career high was 102. In 2024, he missed six games and had 70.

Will he be in a position where ball carriers are funnelled toward him in the middle? What about outlet passes?

History leaves clues, and Al-Shaair is likely to miss a few games, whether due to injury or crossing the line again. And it’s important to note that players with a history of perceived dirty play are under greater scrutiny and face a lower standard for discipline. That could negatively impact his aggressiveness.

Indianapolis Colts

For Taylor, 9.5 rushing TDs is an oddly low number considering that he surpassed that in 2020 (11), 2021 (18), and 2024 (11). The two seasons in which he did not surpass 9.5 were in 2022, when he was limited to 11 games, and 2023, when he was limited to 10.

The Colts are in flux. This is the first season after Jim Irsay’s passing. GM Chris Ballard and coach Shane Steichen are likely feeling the pressure despite Irsay’s daughters giving the impression that they are keeping the current structure in place.

Who’s playing quarterback? If it’s Anthony Richardson, red zone plays are likely to include him running the ball himself. If it’s Daniel Jones, they will likely rely on pass plays and handing the ball to Taylor.

Regardless, it’s difficult to envision a healthy Taylor not scoring 10 TDs this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s Year 5 for Lawrence and while he has viable explanations (not excuses) as to why his career has been so up and down, it’s reaching put up or shut up time.

Yes, he’s had myriad injuries.

Yes, he’s on full-time head coach number three.

Yes, the Jaguars have done the impossible and been more dysfunctional than their closest competitor to win the Lawrence sweepstakes in the 2021 Draft, the Jets.

But now he’s got an offensive guru as his head coach, Liam Coen, and the Jaguars are rife with talent.

So what does that mean for his interception total? When healthy, Lawrence has always thrown his fair share of picks. As a rookie, he led the league with 17. In his third season, the tossed 14 to the guys in the wrong color uniform. He played 10 games in 2024 and threw 7 interceptions. During his best season in 2022, he threw 8 picks.

Coen made his reputation through his work with Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay. Mayfield led the NFL in interceptions in 2024 with 16. Coen was also the offensive coordinator for the 2022 Rams. They went through four QBs due to injuries to starter Matthew Stafford. But Stafford played nine games and threw 8 picks.

Both Mayfield and Stafford have always been high-risk passers.

Is Lawrence?

If he plays a full season, he will throw more than 11.5 interceptions.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans’ offense will hinge on how rookie first overall draft pick Cam Ward adapts to the NFL and how quickly he gets up to speed. Some rookies get it quickly. For some, it takes more time.

If Ward proves he’s an accurate passer and doesn’t panic in the pocket and take off running when it breaks down, then it will open up the rushing attack for feature back Tony Pollard.

Pollard’s over/under for rushing TDs of 5.5 might sound low, but in his six-year career, five with the Cowboys and one with the Titans, he has run for more than 5.5 TDs only twice.

The Titans also have Tyjae Spears who ran for 4 TDs in 2024 in far fewer carries (84) than Pollard had (260).

Oddsmakers strongly believe that Pollard will score fewer than 6 TDs and they’re likely correct.

2025 NFL Player Performance AFC South Over-Under Best Bets

The AFC South player over-under best bets are based on a weak division and questions surrounding these players. So, how do you think the individual players in the AFC South will perform?

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