NFL 2025: Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under For Wins

• Next up in our NFL 2025 preseason analysis looks at the Pittsburgh Steelers’ over-under wins projection
• Oddsmakers have them at 8.5 wins, which is low for a team that has surpassed that number in 10 of the past 11 seasons
• It has been an unusual offseason for the Steelers as they have dived into free agency and the trade market for stars Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, and D.K. Metcalf

Aaron Rodgers Can Still Play

The Steelers have been searching for a quarterback to replace Ben Roethlisberger for four years now. They have cycled through Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and now Aaron Rodgers.

Pittsburgh made the playoffs in 2024, but they were 10-3 and in first place in the AFC North before losing their final five games, including a Wild Card matchup with the Ravens. They were shoved around the field in a 28-14 loss that wasn’t as close as the score suggests. After the season, they parted ways with short-term QBs Fields and Wilson, both of whom ended up in New York with the Jets and Giants, respectively.

After a long-term mating dance, the Steelers and Rodgers finally came to terms on a one-year deal. It’s a marriage of convenience. The Steelers want a veteran quarterback, and Rodgers does not want to end his career following two disastrous seasons with the Jets.

Rodgers can certainly still play, as evidenced by his 3,897 yards passing, 28 TDs against 11 picks, and 90.5 passer rating for Gang Green despite their inherent dysfunction and 5-12 record.

Pittsburgh also set about making him comfortable by giving him adequate weapons, acquiring D.K. Metcalf, Jonnu Smith, Kenny Gainwell, and drafting running back Kaleb Johnson from Iowa in the third round. They join Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren, and Calvin Austin III as targets.

The Defense Has Been Remade

Rodgers isn’t the only proven veteran with something of a diva reputation that the Steelers brought in. They also traded for cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick, and signed veteran cornerback Darius Slay after his release by the Super Bowl champion Eagles.

Pittsburgh went defense-heavy in the draft selecting defensive tackle Derrick Harmon from Oregon in the first round, defensive end Jack Sawyer out of Ohio State in the third, defensive tackle Yahya Black out of Iowa in the fifth, linebacker Carson Bruener out of Washington in the seventh, and cornerback Donte kent from Central Michigan also in the seventh.

Longtime stalwarts Cameron Heyward (36) and T.J. Watt (31 in October) are aging and experiencing the inevitable wear and tear of playing in the NFL in the rough AFC North. While they do have young talent like Joey Porter Jr., changes will be coming relatively soon, given the key older players on the roster.

Are the Steelers Getting Desperate?

Pittsburgh has never been shy about signing fill-in veterans who might be near the end, but still have something left and can add to the solid foundation they already have. This, however, is markedly different from that in that they brought in a 41-year-old quarterback who is two years out from a season-ending Achilles injury and are asking him to lead them back to Super Bowl contention. Rodgers is a patch job for that foundation.

From the opposite perspective, there were limited quarterback options available. They brought Rudolph back before they signed Rodgers, but he’s a career backup. Will Howard was drafted in the sixth round from Ohio State, but he was never a viable alternative as a rookie. They were not bringing back either Fields or Wilson.

Even if the Rodgers signing fails miserably, it was the right decision.

Their 2025 Schedule Is Relatively Friendly

The six division games they play against the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns are never easy. The Steelers travel to play the Jets, Patriots, Chargers, Bears, and Lions. They host the Seahawks, Vikings, Packers, Colts, Bills, and Dolphins.

Steelers Over/Under For Wins

Understandably, the oddsmakers are hedging with the Steelers possibly winning 9 games and possibly falling under that if their all-in 2025 goes wrong.

Head coach Mike Tomlin will handle the diverse personalities. That’s not the issue. The issue is how much these players have left.

For one year and with something to prove, Rodgers should have a good year if he’s healthy. Their offense is deep and diverse, and the defense is rejuvenated. They will go beyond 8.5 wins and be a team few want to play in the playoffs.