NFL 2025: Odds For First Head Coach Fired

• The odds for the first NFL coach fired in 2025 are available
• While it’s preseason, there are head coaches who are known to be on shaky ground
• In 2024, three head coaches were fired in-season; it’s no longer an unusual step to make a head coaching change before season’s end
• Let’s look at which head coaches could be on the outs and who might go first

Odds for First NFL Head Coach Fired

The Likeliest Targets

Several factors contribute to an in-season coaching change in the NFL.

They include:

• A head coach whose contract is up in the next two years
• The team not living up to preseason expectations
• An impatient owner
• A team not making progress
• The players appearing to have quit on the head coach

The following head coaches should probably be wary as the season gets underway.

Brian Daboll, New York Giants

After a surprising 9-7-1 first season, a playoff appearance, and a Wild Card win, the Giants under Daboll have gone 9-25. Last season’s 3-14 record was a disaster. Amid fan rage and, worse, apathy, it likely took all of John Mara’s willpower not to fire Daboll and/or GM Joe Schoen, particularly after so horrific a year immediately after they allowed Saquon Barkley to walk to the Eagles, where he led them to a Super Bowl victory.

No one is expecting the Giants to win the Super Bowl. Even a playoff appearance would be shocking. Still, with a veteran QB in Russell Wilson, a talented rookie Jaxson Dart, receiver Malik Nabers, running back Tyrone Tracy, and rookie edge Abdul Carter, they cannot go 3-14 again and expect to keep their jobs.

Schoen might survive another bad season. Daboll won’t.

Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins

McDaniel is not responsible for the Dolphins’ three-plus decades of misery. As an organization, they are reaching Jets-level mockability, with the only saving grace being their long history of success under Don Shula.

The Dolphins have made the playoffs six times in the past 25 years. They have not made it past the Wild Card Round since 2000. So, it’s not as if McDaniel has done worse than his non-Shula predecessors. In fact, he’s got a record of 28-23 in three seasons. Tua Tagovailoa’s concussions cost the team dearly in 2024.

In short, he’s not completely to blame. However, owner Stephen Ross could be reaching his breaking point, and McDaniel could take the fall for it. With Tua’s injury history and the Dolphins’ backup QB being former Jets bust Zach Wilson, another extended absence for Tua will result in permanent expulsion from the Dolphins’ sideline for McDaniel.

They likely need to make the playoffs for McDaniel to save his job, and if they’re clearly not going to make the playoffs during the season, he’s going to get fired.

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

Barring a sudden turnaround, Sefanski’s legacy will be deciding that Baker Mayfield was not the perfect quarterback for his system and dumping him. Since Mayfield was shown the door, they’ve gone through one QB after another. Now, they have four in camp (Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, and Shedeur Sanders), none of whom is a guarantee.

No team can win without a competent quarterback, and teams that stop at “competent” when they name a starter need to have a strong supporting cast to carry him. The Browns do not have a known entity at QB, and the rest of their roster is not strong.

Does Stefanski take the fall for it during the season? If they’re heading for another 3-5 win campaign, then he’ll be shown the door, probably along with GM Andrew Berry.

Brief Notes on Other Coaches in Possible Jeopardy

The Colts are now being run by the late Jim Irsay’s daughters. They are not firing head coach Shane Steichen during the season in their first year in charge.

Panthers owner David Tepper is capable of anything, and the team’s expectations are higher this year than they were last year, but it’s difficult to see him firing Dave Canales.

If the Cardinals have another uninspiring season, it’s certainly possible that Jonathan Gannon takes the fall. But Kyler Murray is the lightning rod there, and he would be the target of fan and media ire.

Bengals owner Mike Brown will not fire Zac Taylor, no matter what happens, because he takes after his father, Paul Brown, in refusing to pay people for not working. Taylor is signed through 2026.

Our Pick for First NFL Head Coach Fired

When weighing all the factors, our pick for the first NFL head coach fired is the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel.

Do you agree? If not, who do you think should and will be the first head coach fired?